The Oklahoma Sooners' upcoming slate is glaringly front-loaded and some pundits are acting as if OU's season could be doomed before October is even over because of it. However, even if everything does start off wrong for the Sooners in 2026, the schedule actually sets up perfectly for them to still ease into the College Football Playoff as one of the hottest teams in the country at the perfect time.
After a Friday night season opener against UTEP on Sept. 4, the Sooners travel to Michigan the next week. They then return to Norman to host New Mexico before playing Georgia and Texas both away from Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium for what could be the toughest back-to-back challenge any team has to deal with this year. A revealing stretch of the season, yes, but it won't make or break the Sooners.
With UTEP and New Mexico seemingly easy wins, the worst start imaginable for the Sooners, which many have already predicted, would be 2-3 with losses to Michigan, Georgia and Texas. All of those deficits would be suffered away from Norman, with Michigan and Georgia being true road games and Texas obviously being at a neutral Cotton Bowl for the Red River Rivalry. Every loss would also likely be to a top-15 team, and Georgia and Texas could even very well still be in the top 5 at that point.
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As ugly as that 2-3 record would look and have Brent Venables on the hot seat, none of those losses would be devastating for the Sooners. Alabama already proved last year the committee will let a three-loss SEC team into the CFP, and multiple experts have already stated Oklahoma specifically can still get into the playoff with three losses.
Sooners schedule sets up a strong finish heading into CFP
Easy paths are a myth in the SEC, but it then gets a lot less painful for the Sooners after that second Saturday of October. The rest of the schedule includes Kentucky, at Mississippi State, South Carolina, at Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and at Missouri.
That group features a pair of CFP teams from 2025 in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but both of those games will be home at Memorial Stadium. The Swamp also isn't an easy place to win, but Florida is still a mystery under first-year coach Jon Sumrall, who came from Tulane. Every other team on that slate could also end up being a top-25 squad, but four of the seven listed are coming off losing seasons and two have new coaches.
What that sets the Sooners up for is a seven-game winning streak to create a 9-3 record and resume the CFP committee cannot ignore. It could even come down to OU's home wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M being play-in games for all three teams to get into the playoff. Those wins and taking down the Gators in The Swamp would certainly be enough to negate those three early losses, especially if Michigan, Georgia and Texas keep riding high.
On the flip side, even if the Sooners do get off to a hot start, a late loss to any of those teams would hurt their playoff chances a lot more than either of those early ones, based on level of competition and timing. It'd be naive to believe recency bias doesn't influence the committee's decision.
In a perfect world, the Sooners start out 5-0 and there's a lot less stress throughout the season no matter who they're playing down the stretch. But the reality is that daunting five-game stretch likely includes at least one loss. However, even three, although creating no margin for error, shouldn't have OU fans counting out the Sooners in October no matter how bad things feel at the time as the stacked schedule is both a blessing and a curse.
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