If the 2026 college football season goes how CBS Sports' Brad Crawford thinks, then the Oklahoma Sooners will once again need a late run to sneak into the College Football Playoff. Crawford, though, believes one of those make-or-break games will actually break the Sooners.
Crawford predicted the final record for all 16 SEC teams for this upcoming season, including who their wins and losses will be to. He projected the Sooners to go 8-4 with losses at Georgia, vs. Texas, at Florida and vs. Texas A&M. Oklahoma enduring probably the toughest schedule in college football is both a blessing and a curse, though, as Crawford thinks the Sooners can still go back to the CFP by turning just one of those losses into a win, even while it also beats them down.
CBS Sports predictions again have the Sooners enduring late-season drama
Like most national media this offseason, including at his own outlet, Crawford also projects that daunting start to trip up the Sooners early and leave little margin for error. After hosting UTEP in the season opener, OU travels to Michigan, then returns to Norman to welcome New Mexico.
Despite what Vegas says, Crawford actually has the Sooners starting 3-0 with a victory over Michigan at The Big House. But after those three games is when things really get eerie for OU. The Sooners have to travel to Georgia, then after a week off, have Texas in the Red River Rivalry for what could be back-to-back matchups against Top 5 opponents away from Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
Just like that, according to Crawford, the Sooners would be 3-2 after crashing the Top 10 early in the season. Brent Venables' seat would also be even hotter than it was last offseason after three losses in a row to the Longhorns. At that point, it might be CFP or bust for Venables to keep his job until 2027 if he keeps failing to win the biggest game on the calendar.
Read more: Sooners post-spring 2026 schedule prediction sets up Red River Rivalry revenge
From there, the Sooners' schedule really softens up, which sets up perfectly for a late run to slip into the playoff. OU won the last four games of its regular season last year to earn a spot in the CFP.
Still, Crawford still has the Sooners leaving Florida with a loss and essentially letting their playoff spot slip away with a home loss to old Big 12 rival Texas A&M. However, a win over the Aggies, which most OU fans would anticipate since it's inside Memorial Stadium, would put Oklahoma in the CFP, even with three losses.
In the midst of all that, the Sooners would have SEC wins against Kentucky, at Mississippi State, vs. South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss and at Missouri, plus that early road victory over Michigan, which should still be a Top 25 team until the end. Crawford believes, if the Sooners do actually beat Texas A&M, that win against Ole Miss would put the Sooners in the CFP over the Rebels.
That's an impressive resume, and Alabama proved just last year that the selection committee will let a three-loss squad in. It should also be an assurance for Sooner Nation that even if it seems everything is crumbling in October, Oklahoma will still have life in November.
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