Boy, we hope not.
Sporting News' Bill Bender, the bowl and College Football Playoff prediction expert, on Tuesday revealed his early CFP projections for the 2026 college football season, and Oklahoma fans will hope Bender is far from correct here in July to avoid what would feel like the same agony experienced last season.
Bender has the Sooners returning to the CFP despite having maybe the toughest schedule in college football staring down at them. Obviously good. However, not only does Bender have Oklahoma downgrading to 0-6 in playoff games and still chasing that elusive postseason win in 2027, but he predicts it will happen in similar fashion as 2025 in another SEC rematch.
The Sooners were projected to earn the No. 9 seed, which, according to Bender's predictions, would send them to No. 8 Ole Miss for a rematch of an SEC matchup that would have happened just over a month before. Last year, the Sooners hosted Alabama as the 8-seed. After ending the Crimson Tide's home winning streak during the regular season, OU's CFP dreams were then crushed by Bama in the first round in the second clash.
Sooners dealt another SEC rematch in CFP prediction
In this case, based on seeding, the Rebels likely won the first meeting on Nov. 14 in what's scheduled to be an afternoon game at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman. Between home-field advantage and Lane Kiffin being at LSU now, it's really hard to see that happening, even with Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss as a Heisman Trophy contender.
If it does play out how Bender predicts, though, that loss could actually benefit the Sooners in the CFP. Oklahoma learned the hard way last year how hard it is to beat a really good team twice in the same season. The Sooners could give Ole Miss that same lesson. And OU fans would much prefer finally notching that CFP win over a regular-season SEC game.
"The Sooners have a first-round matchup against a league foe for the second straight season – this time on the road," Bender wrote. "The Rebels do play at Oklahoma on Nov. 14 – but that happens in this format. The quarterback matchup between John Mateer and Trinidad Chambliss is appealing. They combined for 75 pass attempts in a 34-26 shootout last season."
The rest of Bender's predicted CFP field included No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 4 Ohio State, No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Oregon, No. 7 Miami, No. 10 USC, No. 11 BYU and No. 12 Boise State. He has everything wrapping up with Indiana and Notre Dame meeting in the national championship game for a rare in-state showdown in Las Vegas.
Bender's projected 12-team field also features three teams on OU's schedule, including No. 2 Georgia, No. 5 Texas and No. 8 Ole Miss, which further solidifies (as if it hasn't been made clear already) the gauntlet the Sooners have ahead of them. Again based on seeding, that likely means a three-loss OU squad sneaking into the CFP, with every loss coming to a playoff contender and two away from Norman.
Read more: Oklahoma's 2026 schedule has all the makings for a nightmare but it's nothing new
Recently, CBS Sports' Brad Crawford predicted the Sooners to go 8-4 but mentioned a win over Ole Miss that would have them finishing at 9-3 instead could be enough to put them back in the CFP over the Rebels.
What all this does make clear is that there's a lot of football ahead for the Sooners, but there's also margin for error, especially early on. At times, that could make for a grueling 2026 for OU fans experiencing it, even while looking at the big picture. However, nothing would be more tortuous than again coming up short in the playoff, especially in another rematch.
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