I recently simulated the Oklahoma Sooners' upcoming football season 10 times using EA Sports College Football 26. I set the mark at 10 to find an easy and even probability for each game and every season.
Before diving in, this is based on a video game. Don't run to Vegas and throw down a mortgage because CFB26 predicted the Sooners to have a sure chance against a specific opponent. It's mostly for fun as we impatiently wait for real football.
However, with that being said, considering how much unbiased research went into everything and how well these simulations went overall last year, these predictions could prove to be more accurate than whatever college football experts conjure up.
All preseason predictions, now more than ever, are educated guesses either way, but at least you know CFB26 didn't have an engrained bias or pick certain records for more views. CFB26 is also the only way to see completely new rosters around the country in action (sort of).
Now, using the 10 simulations and the detailed notes I took along the way (I need more hobbies), I'll go through the Sooners' probability in every game in 2025, plus at the end, a look at OU's chances at making the College Football Playoff and winning the SEC, and the mostly likely season record.
Win probability for every Oklahoma game
vs. Illinois State: 99.99%
I refuse to put 100%, because that's never the case in college football. That's why it says 99.99%. Also, as an FCS team, Illinois State isn't actually in the game, so it's OU playing a generic FCS team. Regardless, it's against a team OU has a lot more talent than.
vs. Michigan: 70%
Some have deemed this the most important game on the Sooners' schedule. In these simulations, the best OU ever finished after losing to Michigan was 8-4. And in one season in which the Sooners beat Michigan and went 10-2, OU ended up losing to the Wolverines in the CFP quarterfinals, but I did not include that rematch with the regular-season probability. Two of the three regular-season losses were also by just a touchdown, plus a blowout.
CFB26 likes the Sooners' chances at home, mostly.
at Temple: 99.99%
What should be another lock for the Sooners.
vs. Auburn: 60%
Despite also being at home, the Sooners actually have less of a chance against Auburn than Michigan, according to the simulations. That's the SEC effect. Only one season, though, did OU lose to both in Norman.
A loss to Auburn also usually meant a rather disappointing season for the Sooners. And most losses to Auburn weren't even really close.
vs. Kent State: 99.99%
Brent Venables is fired on the field if OU loses this one.
at Texas: 50%
A literal toss-up in the Red River Rivalry. One season, though, OU went 10-2 during the regular season, but lost to Texas twice after a rematch in the SEC Championship Game. There was another instance where the Sooners thumped Texas 55-7.
at South Carolina: 30%
Surprisingly, the simulations predicted a trip to South Carolina to be the Sooners' toughest matchup and the only game with less than a 50% chance. The fact OU is on the road likely played a major role in that outcome. CFB26 also loves South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers.
vs. Ole Miss: 80%
Ole Miss had a lot of rebuilding to do, but these high chances almost seem too good. Again, CFB26 usually favors the home team and likes the Sooners at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
at Tennessee: 70%
The Volunteers also had to do a lot of reloading, but the fact this game is in Knoxville decreased OU's chances a bit. Still solid, though.
at Alabama: 90%
OK, 90% chances against Alabama on the road makes these simulations seem untrustworthy. And most of the outcomes were actually blowouts by the Sooners.
vs. Missouri: 99.99%
The key game for why I wouldn't put 100%. There are no guarantees against an SEC opponent, just ask Bama about Vanderbilt. Regardless, CFB26 is confident in the Sooners against Missouri.
vs. LSU: 50%
Another toss-up against another team with high expectations in 2025. If not for being in Norman, this probability likely would have been well below 50%. Despite the Tigers' hype, though, these simulations weren't huge fans. LSU never won the SEC in 10 seasons.
Most likely record: 9-3
Since most probabilities were so high, I considered 50% and below as losses, making 9-3 the most likely outcome for the Sooners in 2025. That meant losses to Texas, South Carolina and LSU. Based on these simulations, 9-3 was never good enough to get OU into the CFP.
SEC Championship Game: 30%
The Sooners made the SEC Championship Game three times, and it took extremely impressive seasons to get them there. The worst season OU had to reach the conference championship game was 10-2.
SEC champions: 10%
Of the Sooners' three chances in the SEC Championship Game, they won only once, beating Texas A&M after going 12-0 during the regular season. It was the absolute best season from the 10 simulations. OU lost to Texas and Georgia in the other two championship games.
College Football Playoff: 40%
It seems the Sooners have a better chance at making the CFP than playing for a conference title. That's life in the SEC. However, in 10 seasons, OU never went all the way. In four CFP trips, the Sooners lost to Notre Dame in the quarterfinals, Michigan in the quarters, Texas Tech in the semis and Georgia in the semis.
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