If people can't predict the chaos of college football, then we might as well let machines give it a shot.
EA Sports released College Football 26 on Thursday after reviving the popular video game last year. I used CFB26 to simulate the Oklahoma Sooners' looming season 10 different times while keeping track of everything from scores, to national champions, to award winners, to individual stats and more. It was a late Friday night.
Before we dive too deep, though, there are some things to note. First, it is a video games, so sometimes things can go a little crazy, but that can also be said about college football. And although it is a video game, these preseason simulations were actually pretty accurate last year overall.
EA Sports also tries to have the most correct rosters possible, which includes reasonable rankings for every player. However, some players are missing, but the omissions for the Sooners aren't big enough to disregard these simulations.
I will dive deeper into these simulations in the future, including the Sooners' win probability for every game, but these are the things that popped out to me the most that these 10 season simulations revealed.
Predicting OU's season with EA Sports College Football 26
Take the over
Vegas has held steady at 6.5 for OU's win total for this regular season. In 10 simulations, the Sooners never dipped below that mark. OU's lowest win total in the 10 seasons was seven, and that happened only once. The most common regular-season record for the Sooners was 8-4, finishing with that mark in half of the simulations.
So, if you'd like to base your bets on a video game, here's your sign to bet the house.
Another year of Venables
Ten times I pushed to start simming a season that Brent Venables started on the hot. And every single time he kept his job.
After two losing seasons in three years, CFB26 didn't see that happening again in any scenario. In fact, not only did Venables always do enough to keep his job, but in Year 4, he won the Bear Bryant Coach of the Year Award after leading the Sooners through a perfect 12-0 regular season and to an SEC title before losing in the College Football Playoff semis.
Circle that Michigan game
We recently published a story that deemed OU's Week 2 game against Michigan the most important on the schedule. CFB26 agrees.
Of the 10 simulated seasons, OU made the CFP four times and beat Michigan in every instance. The three times the Sooners lost to Michigan, they finished a disappointing 8-4, 8-4 and 7-5.
That Week 2 matchup was a tone-setter and locked OU with a 3-0 start, and usually at 5-0 heading into the Red River Rivalry. However, on one occasion, OU beat Michigan in Week 2 before losing to the Wolverines in the CFP. Sooner Nation would still take that playoff appearance, though.
OU's toughest challenge
Most would argue a road trip to Alabama or rivalry game against Texas would be OU's toughest challenge in 2025, but CFB26 thinks otherwise.
South Carolina actually beat OU more times than any other team in the 10 simulations. The Gamecocks got the best of the Sooners seven times. And that also included some blowouts.
No other team on the schedule beat OU more than it lost to the Sooners.
Bad omen for Ott?
There's a lot of hope for Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott this season, and I was expecting some monster numbers from him, but instead, he mostly suffered bad luck.
Of the 10 seasons, Ott missed multiple games because of injury five times and in another season he missed one game. However, Ott surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in every season he was healthy.
Georgia and Clemson still rule
CFB26 loved Georgia and Clemson, at least during these 10 seasons.
Georgia absolutely ruled the SEC, winning the conference four times. The Bulldogs also won the national championship on three occasions, and in two of those instances they didn't even win the SEC. So in 10 seasons, Georgia won the SEC and/or national title six times.
Clemson also had a lot of success with three national titles. And quarterback Cade Klubnik won the Heisman Trophy twice.
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