Football Power Index Still Likes Sooners Going Forward
By Chip Rouse
The Oklahoma Sooners have been in a free fall in the college football rankings since the start of the season less than three weeks ago.
After losing to Houston in Week 1 and this past weekend to Ohio State, two teams currently ranked in the top 10 of both major national polls, Oklahoma has dropped like a rock in the national rankings.
The Sooners, who were ranked No. 3 to start the season, have fallen completely out of the top 25 in the Amway Coaches Poll and are barely holding on, at No. 25, in the new AP poll this week.
Not all love has been lost for the struggling Sooners, though. Oklahoma has not dropped as precipitously in the ESPN Football Power Index. The reason for that is the FPI is not a measure or evaluation of a team’s current performance. Rather, it is an evaluator of a team’s strength and what that team’s predicted performance going forward.
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On that basis, the Sooners currently rank 11th in the FPI after Week 3 of the 2016 season, the highest ranking of any of the Big 12 schools. Oklahoma State (2-1) is the closest of the Big 12 schools to Oklahoma, at No. 15, in this week’s Football Power Index. Baylor (3-0) is next, at No. 20, and Texas is 30th.
Oklahoma’s regression in the FPI has been more gradual. The Sooners began the season as the third-ranked team in the FPI. After losing its season opener to Houston, OU dropped five spots, to No. 8, and fell one more spot after beating Louisiana-Monroe in Week 2.
When the Sooners were at No. 3 in the FPI in the preseason, they were given a 64 percent chance of winning the Big 12 this season. That percentage has subsequently dropped down to 36 percent.
The top 10 teams in the current FPI rankings are 1. Louisville, 2. Alabama, 3. Ohio State, 4. Michigan, 5. Clemson, 6. Florida State, 7. Texas A&M, 8. Tennessee, 9. Washington and 10. LSU.