Brent Venables and Oklahoma are right where they hoped they would be at this stage of the 2025 season: in control of their own destiny.
It's no secret that the No. 1 objective of the Oklahoma football team each and every season is to win the national championship -- something the Sooners have not been able to accomplish for the past 24 years. And in today's world of college football, the only way to do that is to be one of the 12 teams that make the College Football Playoff.
Sooners in a win-out situation to make CFP
The Sooners sit at 7-2 with three challenging games remaining in the 2025 regular season. Two of those games are against teams ranked in the top 25 of the initial CFP rankings for this season in No. 4 Alabama and No. 22 Missouri. The Sooners came in at No. 12 in the first CFP rankings as the second team left out.
OU closes out the regular season at home against an LSU team that has fallen into turmoil, but is still good enough to beat any team in the country on a given Saturday.
Oklahoma's season dreams are still in front of them, and the path is as straightforward as it can be: Win all three remaining games, given the strength of schedule those games represent, and the chances of making the playoff are virtually 100%. Lose one of the three, though, and it's almost 100% certain OU will be out.
While the Sooners will not be mathematically eliminated should they lose a game in November, chaos among the one- and two-loss teams who rank ahead of them will have to reach giant proportions for OU to buck the enormous odds against it and work its way into the playoff field.
Would the 2025 season be lost should Oklahoma miss out on the playoff? The answer to that question is as simple as the Sooners' path to the playoff: Definitely not. Most experts project the Sooners to lose at Alabama next weekend. Not only will the Crimson Tide be playing at home, where they rarely ever lose, but they clearly will be looking to avenge the upset loss to OU last season in Norman that for all intents and purposes kept Alabama out of last season's College Football Playoff.
For the sake of argument, let's say the experts are proven right and Alabama defeats Oklahoma a week from now, handing the Sooners a third loss. Those same experts likely will give OU better than a 50% chance of winning its final two games at home when Missouri and LSU come calling. A 9-3 record is certainly nothing to sniff at and should give the Sooners plenty of incentive to show up with their "A" game in their final two games. In other words, the thing Oklahoma can least afford to happen is to allow what would certainly be a disappointing loss at Alabama to turn into one or two more.
Whatever happens in the Alabama game, the stakes will remain high for what comes thereafter. Most of the national sports media are projecting Oklahoma to get a postseason bid for what most fans would consider an insignificant or lower-tier bowl. It's a fairly safe bet that a 9-3 record and a potential top-15 ranking is going to draw the Sooners a pretty good bowl assignment and a formidable opponent.
What all of this boils down to is the importance of managing expectations. The talk all season has been about how Oklahoma is finally in a position to be a creditable playoff contender. But missing the playoff and still managing to finish out the season strong should not result in shattered dreams or expectations or the feeling of a season lost.
The Sooners are in control of their own destiny all the way to the finish line.