As if November is the new March of college football, consider the Oklahoma Sooners on the bubble to make the College Football Playoff with just one month left of the 2025 regular season.
The Sooners came in at No. 12 in the first CFP rankings of the season on Tuesday evening. The CFP committee creates this set of rankings to ultimately decide the 12-team field for the playoff, basically making every other major poll irrelevant the rest of the way.
Oklahoma at No. 12 in initial CFP rankings
BREAKING: Initial College Football Playoff Rankings🚨https://t.co/nSJbXtt30A pic.twitter.com/RsQCtcadOG
— On3 (@On3sports) November 5, 2025
Although the Sooners were 12th, they still actually wouldn't make the CFP based on these rankings if the season ended today and would be the second team out.
The five highest-ranked conference champions make the CFP, so with only four conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12) represented in the initial top-25, an unranked team from a Group of Five conference would take the place of the Sooners in this scenario. Another team from outside the top-12 would also slide up.
According to ESPN's projection, Memphis would be the Group of Five team to get the 12th spot, plus No. 14 Virginia would get in as the highest-ranked team from the ACC. That would knock No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 11 Texas out of the bracket. In order for the Sooners to truly be safe if the ACC and Group of Five representatives remain outside of the top-12, they will need to be at least inside the top 10 to erase that possibility.
THE FIRST 12-TEAM CFP BRACKET PROJECTION OF THE SEASON‼️
— ESPN (@espn) November 5, 2025
The committee selected Memphis as the best team from the remaining conferences. pic.twitter.com/EU6NCc33Ds
The Sooners still have plenty of opportunity to rise because of a loaded schedule, which no Group of Five team can also say. OU is idle this week, but will travel to No. 4 Alabama on Nov. 15. A win in Tuscaloosa would catapult the Sooners over several teams ahead of them. A loss, though, will likely drop the Sooners from the conversation with three losses.
OU will then conclude its regular season with back-to-back home games against No. 22 Missouri and LSU.
New CFP rankings will be released every Tuesday evening on ESPN until Selection Sunday on Dec. 7. The top 4 teams get first-round byes, while seeds 5-8 get to host a first-round game.