Make it make sense! Fresh off their best season in years, one would think the Oklahoma Sooners would be more than playoff-viable again next season. Last year's team managed to win 10 games and reach the College Football Playoff, despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. Yes, Brent Venables' team had its flaws, but showed up in the big spots. So why is FanDuel down on them?
Here are the latest projected SEC win totals from over on FanDuel Sportsbook, sorted alphabetically.
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 8.5
- Arkansas Razorbacks: 4.5
- Auburn Tigers: 6.5
- Florida Gators: 6.5
- Georgia Bulldogs: 9.5
- Kentucky Wildcats: 5.5
- LSU Tigers: 8.5
- Mississippi State Bulldogs: 4.5
- Missouri Tigers: 6.5
- Oklahoma Sooners: 7.5
- Ole Miss Rebels: 7.5
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 5.5
- Tennessee Volunteers: 6.5
- Texas Longhorns: 9.5
- Texas A&M Aggies: 8.5
- Vanderbilt Commodores: 6.5
If you need a visual representation of how it looks in the SEC hierarchy, Josh Pate has you covered.
🚨PATE STATE ALERT🚨
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) March 13, 2026
SEC win totals released by @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/riVlTBpwlg
FanDuel only has Oklahoma projected to win 7.5 games next season. That has the Sooners tied for the sixth-best mark in the SEC with another playoff team from a year ago in Ole Miss. Based on what FanDuel is providing us, only Georgia and Texas are projected to be playoff teams. The SEC sent five teams into the playoff a year ago, including Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and of course, Alabama. What gives?
While the upcoming schedule is no joke, Venables will have his doubters eating their words for sure.
FanDuel does not have Oklahoma anything close to being a playoff team
To attempt to understand all of this, let's take a good, hard look at the Sooners' schedule for 2026.
Date | Opponent | Location |
|---|---|---|
Sept. 5 | UTEP Miners | Norman, OK |
Sept. 12 | at Michigan Wolverines | Ann Arbor, MI |
Sept. 19 | New Mexico Lobos | Norman, OK |
Sept. 26 | at Georgia Bulldogs | Athens, GA |
Oct. 3 | BYE | |
Oct. 10 | Texas Longhorns | Dallas, TX |
Oct. 17 | Kentucky Wildcats | Norman, OK |
Oct. 24 | at Mississippi State Bulldogs | Starkville, MS |
Oct. 31 | South Carolina Gamecocks | Norman, OK |
Nov. 7 | at Florida Gators | Gainesville, FL |
Nov. 14 | Ole Miss Rebels | Norman, OK |
Nov. 21 | Texas A&M Aggies | Norman, OK |
Nov. 28 | at Missouri Tigers | Columbia, MO |
Dec. 5 | SEC Championship | Atlanta, GA |
This is not the easiest schedule by any means, but there are more wins to be had than losses for sure.
For the sake of simplicity, let's break this down by its three non-conference games first, followed by its nine-game SEC slate. In SEC play, we will put those nine games into three equal buckets: Their three hardest games, their three easiest, and the three that could go either way. From there, we will prove once and for all that Oklahoma should have a better projected win total for next year than 7.5...
In the non-conference, Oklahoma hosts UTEP, then plays Michigan in The Big House, followed by a sneaky home date with New Mexico. Because Venables has been in Norman longer than Kyle Whittingham has been in Ann Arbor, there is a very strong possibility OU goes 3-0 in non-conference play. A loss to Michigan will not be bad, but may cost the Sooners a shot at making the playoff again.
Right now, the three toughest SEC games Oklahoma has to play are at Georgia, Texas in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, and probably a home date vs. Texas A&M. The Aggies game has to be of the gotta- have-it variety if OU wants to make the playoff. It could lose to Georgia and Texas and still make the field, as long it does not stumble anywhere else there. Oklahoma is going to lose one of these three.
Its three easiest games on the SEC schedule are home vs. Kentucky, at Mississippi State, and home vs. South Carolina. They are all in a row after Red River to finish up the October portion of their schedule. Where things stand right now, a loss to even one of them could prevent OU from not only making the playoff, but could seriously jeopardize them eclipsing their low win total of 7.5 victories.
And for the three SEC games that hang in the balances, those would be at Florida, home vs. Ole Miss, and at Missouri. Chances are one of these teams is going to be very good. The other two, maybe not. To be totally honest, it is imperative for Oklahoma to win at least two of them to have any real shot of making the playoff again. Otherwise, they must take two of three between Georgia, Texas, and A&M.
Overall, let's give Oklahoma 2.5 wins right now in the non-conference, with the Michigan date being up for debate. Let's give them 1.5 wins in the hardest quarter of their SEC schedule. Add three wins from the lesser league games. As for the middle third of their SEC schedule, 1.5 to 2.5 wins feels safe. If you add them all up, Oklahoma should win somewhere around 8.5 to 9.5 games with their schedule.
Ultimately, as long as John Mateer takes that next step in his development as a Power Four quarterback, there is a non-zero chance OU wins upwards of 10 or 11 games next season. The SEC is going to get four or so teams into the College Football Playoff again. After presumably Georgia and Texas getting in as locks, Oklahoma has to be among the next teams who could be receiving bids.
Right now, the rest of the college football world should sleep on Oklahoma at their own peril in 2026.