Analytics expect wonders if this is as good as it gets for John Mateer at Oklahoma

John Mateer may have his detractors, but his spot among the best college quarterbacks is so off.
John Mateer, Oklahoma Sooners
John Mateer, Oklahoma Sooners | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There is no way around it. John Mateer took an absolute beating during his first season at Oklahoma. While he dazzled during the first month or so of the season, a thumb injury derailed what was once a promising Heisman Trophy campaign for the former Washington State transfer. Although Oklahoma did make the College Football Playoff, that might have had more to do with Brent Venables' defense.

So it should come as no surprise that ESPN's Bill Connelly is not super high on Mateer this offseason.

  1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin
  3. Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss
  4. Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning
  5. USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava
  6. Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore
  7. Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker
  8. Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton
  9. Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Brendan Sorsby
  10. Auburn Tigers quarterback Byrum Brown
  11. Miami Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah
  12. Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier
  13. Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Josh Hoover
  14. LSU Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt
  15. BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier
  16. North Carolina State Wolfpack CJ Bailey
  17. Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood
  18. Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed
  19. Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer
  20. Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr.

Yes, Connelly ranking Mateer as the 19th best quarterback in the Power Four does seem a bit harsh. When he is at his best, Mateer is a top-10 quarterback in the country. Given his inconsistent nature, he can occasionally play like a guy who needs to be benched. In all honesty, Mateer should probably be ranked somewhere around No. 15 and just call it a day. However, Connelly did bring this bit up...

In his blurb about Mateer, the noted ESPN analytics expert questioned if this is as good as it gets...

"While OU's playoff run was heavily driven by defense, he still made some big plays and could do so again in 2026 now that he knows the SEC landscape a bit better. And even if he doesn't improve, he's super fun, and that's all that matters if you're a neutral, right?"

Mateer does need to be come far more steady to have a future on NFL Sundays, but he can still grow.

Bill Connelly debates if John Mateer has already hit his Oklahoma ceiling

Let's make one thing clear. This will be yet another season where Mateer will be running the plays Ben Arbuckle calls for him as his offensive coordinator. They came over together from Pullman to Norman this past offseason. For a minute there, the SEC was not ready for what their budding partnership was capable of. In the end, Mateer's thumb injury made him far too inaccurate to be reliable for Oklahoma.

Again, this is not meant to tear apart Connelly's list of Power Four quarterbacks. It just shows where the bar is that Mateer has to clear. At this time, Oklahoma is one of a handful of teams in the SEC who can realistically make the College Football Playoff. While Georgia and arch rival Texas seems like the closest things to locks in their conference, Oklahoma could be one of five SEC teams to make it in.

Overall, one of two things needs to happen intrinsically for Mateer to shirk Connelly's criticisms of him. Either he takes his game up a level personally, or Arbuckle needs to put him into more advantageous situations to succeed. The talent is undeniably there, but the production comes and goes as a result of his recklessness. Truth be told, we should be in on Mateer to grow and develop.

For now, nobody is going to hand Mateer any pre-season accolades; he is going to have to earn them.

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