ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky tabs John Mateer as breakout 2026 NFL Draft QB

John Mateer will not only start his time as the Oklahoma Sooners' starting quarterback with Heisman Trophy hype, but also NFL Draft stock.

With the 2025 NFL Draft starting on Thursday, ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky put out a list on X of college quarterbacks who he expects to make up a loaded draft class for next year and included Mateer in the 11-player group.

Dan Orlovsky expects loaded quarterback class in 2026 that includes Oklahoma's John Mateer

Although an underwhelming NFL quarterback himself, Orlovsky is usually pretty accurate with his quarterback evaluations since becoming an analyst in 2017. This year, Orlovsky believes Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart will be the steal of the draft for what's been considered a poor quarterback class.

While the 2025 class lacks potential franchise quarterbacks, Orlovsky predicts a massive uptick in talent for 2026. However, of the 11 quarterbacks Orlovsky listed, Mateer is one of six who hasn't been an everyday starter for their current team yet.

Mateer, entering his junior season, transferred to OU from Washington State in December. He followed his offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle to Norman, so will at least be familiar with the offense despite playing for a new team.

In his one season as the Cougars' QB1 after backing up potential No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward, Mateer led the FBS with 44 total touchdowns in 2024. He threw for 3,139 yards and 29 TDs compared to seven interceptions while completing 64.6% of his passes. He also rushed for 826 yards and 15 scores.

The thing watering down Mateer's potential success with the Sooners is considering the defenses Mateer faced during Washington State's weak schedule in its first season out of the Pac-12 and without an actual conference slate.

How Mateer does against SEC defenses next season will be crucial in his future NFL Draft stock. He's also listed at 6-foot-1, so if his official measurement comes in any shorter, then that could be another flaw NFL scouts mention.

Regardless, if Mateer lives up to the offseason hype of being a Heisman contender and top-10 quarterback in college football, then he could emerge as a first-round prospect. That would be good news for the Sooners in 2025 and their rich quarterback legacy, but bad news in keeping Mateer in Norman longer than just one season.

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