If you examine all the preseason assessments at where the beleaguered Oklahoma football program will end up in the final accounting this season, you're likely to be left more befuddled than ever.
Some of the most notable college football experts on the planet project the Sooners to finish anywhere from SEC champions
(check out USA Today college football writer Matt Hayes' recent bold prediction) to 10th when the conference standings ultimately shake out.
That is an unusually wide range and underscores the uncertainty surrounding OU football in critical Year 4 of the Brent Venables era. There is a general consensus that Oklahoma will be better this season than in 2024, but in a conference as formidable as the SEC, being better year over year doesn't necessarily translate into more wins.
During the offseason, Venables and his staff addressed multiple areas of need that in large part were responsible for the team's highly uncharacteristic offensive collapse and overall disappointing performance a year ago.
I identified five specific reasons the 2025 edition of Oklahoma football -- or Team 131 as Venables likes to refer to it -- should surprise a number of the so-called experts, as well as the most loyal OU fans, and could result in as many as nine, even 10 wins.
1. Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer
A year ago with Jackson Arnold at quarterback, and Seth Littrell and Joe Jon Finley sharing offensive coordinator duties, Oklahoma finished 113th out of 133 FBS teams in total offense and 76th in scoring offense. Since then, Oklahoma has added new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, as well as quarterback John Mateer.
Both Arbuckle and Mateer came from Washington State, where last season the WSU offense was 17th in the country in total offense and sixth in scoring offense. That combination is now at Oklahoma and with a lot more offensive weapons and playmakers to work with.
With a couple of seasons in Arbuckle's offensive system, Mateer's transition has been relatively seamless. The bigger question is how Mateer's grand success in the depleted Pac-12 will translate to the much tougher competition in the SEC.
What does the addition of Arbuckle mean for the OU offense? His Air Raid system at Washington state the past two seasons finished in the top-10 nationally in both passing yards per game and passing touchdowns. Oh, and by the way, the two quarterbacks he coached those two seasons were Mateer and Cam Ward, the No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick this year.
Mateer's dual-threat ability -- 3,139 yards passing and 29 touchdowns and 826 additional rushing yards along with 15 TDs -- adds one more dimension to what should be a reinvigorated OU offense in 2025. At the annual OU Football Coaches Luncheon last week, Arbuckle paid the Sooner starting quarterback the ultimate comment: "John Mateer makes everyone around him better. He has a way of galvanizing the people around him to push toward the common goal."
2. Offensive line that is healthier and more experienced
To have success in the SEC, it is imperative to have strong offensive line play. With 10 different starting offensive line combinations last season, Oklahoma's O-line was no match for the top defensive front sevens that exist in the SEC. Offensive line injuries were a major problem in the 2024 season.
In Bill Bedenbaugh we trust, and there was no one more upset with the offensive line play last season than the Sooners' offensive line coach, considered one of the best coaches in the country at that critical position.
With a healthier O-line rotation and more experience with the return of starters tackle Jacob Sexton, center Troy Everett and guard Febechi Nawiwu, along with transfer tackle Derek Simmons and second-year guard Eddy Pierre Louis, Oklahoma should be much improved with the big guys up front.
The Oklahoma rotation will also include Stanford transfer Jake Maikkula, a center, guard Heath Ozaeta, and tackles Logan Howland and Luke Baklenko, each of whom have at least 500 collegiate snaps. Freshmen Michael Fasusi, a former five-star recruit, and four-star prospect Ryan Fodge were both impressive during spring ball, adding to the depth at the position.
3. A very good defense gets even better
The Sooner defense has gotten better every season since Brent Venables has been the OU head coach. The Sooners finished 19th in the country last season, allowing 318 yards per game. Despite the loss of a couple of big-time performers in All-American linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman, Oklahoma returns nearly 60% of its defensive production from a year ago.
The Sooners enter the 2025 season with one of the best defensive lines in the SEC, which historically has always been the way of the best teams in the SEC. ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy ranked the Sooners as the seventh-best defense in college football entering the 2025 season. The Sooners feature talent at each level of the defense.
4. Veteran Deion Burks and deep group of unknown WRs show out
Oklahoma played almost the complete 2024 season without its five best wide receivers, including Deion Burks, who led the team with 31 catches before sustaining a season-ending injury just five games into the season. The Sooner wide-receiver room will look completely different this season with the addition of five transfers and a couple of talented incoming freshmen, who will join Burks and 6-foot-4 Jayden Gibson, as well as four returning freshmen receivers with a year of experience now under their belts.
"Our (wide receiver) room is so deep, and I trust all those guys," said QB John Mateer at SEC Media Days. "One-on-one matchups are going to be huge, and we're going to continue to find out who can win consistently. We've got a lot of guys that can do it."
Burks is expected to be the unquestionable leader of this group, but Javonne Gibson, a transfer from Arkansas Pine-Bluff, was highly impressive in spring workouts with his speed and catching ability. Unfortunately, the 6-foot-3 Gibson broke his leg in spring practice, but Venables reported during SEC Media Days that Gibson is still on track to return by the season opener. The OU coaches also have had high praise for four-star freshman prospect Elijah Thomas in spring and summer workouts.
In summary, the group is deeper and stronger than last season, and with Mateer at quarterback, should be markedly better than the team's 119th ranking among FBS teams in 2024 passing offense (175.8 yards per game).
5. OU run game will again be force to be reckoned with
Injuries also hindered the Oklahoma rushing offense a year ago. Jovantae Barnes was the team's leading running back a year ago, collecting 577 yards and averaging 4.7 yards per carry before an ankle injury forced him to miss the final four games of the season.
Barnes is healthy and ready to go again this season, but he will ikely be in a backup roll to California transfer Jaydn Ott, considered to be one of college football's top transfer additions and one of the best running backs in the country two seasons ago.
Plagued by an ankle injury that slowed him down in the 2024 season, Ott averaged just 38.5 yards per game last season. The year before, however, he ran for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns for a team considerably less talented than the Sooners.
Xavier Robinson was impressive filling in for Barnes late in the season a year ago as a freshman. He had 107 yards on the ground and a couple of touchdowns in the Sooners' upset win over Alabama. Taylor Tatum, formally the top running back in the country in the 2024 recruiting class, returns for his sophomore season in 2025.
You also must factor in Mateer's threat using his legs and the serious threat he poses in the run-pass option game. Mateer's strength and size make him tough to bring down when he gets going, as evidenced by his 826 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns last season at Washington State.
With the running attack expected to be much better, that opens up opportunities to advance the ball through the air more accurately and effectively. Those two things alone should make the Oklahoma offense much better and more dangerous this fall.
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