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Oklahoma football: Sooners making another late Playoff charge

By Chip Rouse

PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: A general view of the 2018 College Football Playoff Semifinal Game between the Oklahoma Sooners and Georgia Bulldogs at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual at the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2018 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: A general view of the 2018 College Football Playoff Semifinal Game between the Oklahoma Sooners and Georgia Bulldogs at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual at the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2018 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /
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With the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings set to be disclosed about 24 hours from now, Oklahoma football will move at least one step closer to making it into the top four, with one game remaining to impress the selection committee.

The Sooners started out at No. 10 in the initial 2019 Playoff rankings several weeks ago, and this week should occupy the No. 6 spot, with the five teams ahead of them, including Utah, which is expected to move to No.5 in the rankings, all engaged in conference championship games this weekend.

Chances are very good that Baylor, the Sooners’ opponent in the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, will be in the seventh spot, right behind Oklahoma, when the next-to-last Playoff rankings are revealed Tuesday night.

Having Baylor ranked in the top 10 is good for the Sooners because, besides LSU and Georgia meeting for the SEC title, the OU-Baylor rematch is the only other top-10 matchup on championship weekend among the Power Five conferences.

That factor, plus the chance to beat a highly ranked team twice in the same season, represents the Sooners best Playoff argument should it come down to the choice between Utah and Oklahoma for the fourth and final spot.

Alabama, formerly the No. 5 team in the Playoff rankings, is the latest team ahead of the Sooners to fall victim to the chaos that had to happen for Oklahoma to advance far enough upward to become relevant again in the Playoff conversation.

Following the Sooners’ stunning loss to Kansas State, Oklahoma’s once lofty Playoff hopes found themselves on life support.

Alabama lost to Auburn on Saturday in the annual Iron Bowl rivalry. As a two-loss team and not playing for its conference championship, you can eliminate the Crimson Tide from Playoff consideration. It will be the first time in the six-year history of the College Playoff that the Crimson Tide has not been one of the four teams.

That makes three teams once ranked ahead of Oklahoma — Oregon, Minnesota and now Alabama — that have suffered untimely losses in as many weeks.

Assuming Oklahoma is able to get by a very good Baylor team — that easily could have beaten the Sooners when the two teams played on Nov. 16 at Baylor — the Sooners clearest path to what just a few weeks ago seemed like a highly improbable Playoff run would be for No. 4 Georgia to lose to LSU in the SEC Championship and for Utah to be upset by Oregon, which just two weeks ago was at No. 6, in the Pac-12 Championship on Friday.

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The odds are greater that Georgia will lose to LSU than Utah falling to Oregon. In that case, the final Playoff spot will come down to a largely subjective choice between the Utes and the Sooners over which team has the better Playoff resume.

If the final determination comes down to Oklahoma or Utah, this is what the two teams having going for them leading into their conference championship games regarding their overall body of work during the 2019 season:

  • Both teams are 11-1 this season. Utah is currently ranked sixth in the Playoff rankings; Oklahoma is currently seventh.
  • Oklahoma has beaten three teams (Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State) that were ranked in the CFP Top 25 at the time the game was played. The Sooners also beat Texas, which was ranked 11th in the Associated Press Poll at the time that game was played.
  • Utah has no wins over a team that has been ranked in the CFP Top 25 since the first 2019 rankings came out on Nov. 5. The Utes have beaten only three teams (Washington, Washington State and California) that have been ranked in the AP Top 25 at any time this season. Only two of those wins, however, were against ranked teams at the time the game was played.

If quality wins are a key criteria in considering a team’s Playoff worthiness, I don’t see any way the committee could pick Utah over OU, if it comes down to it. Baylor, incidently, would have a similar argument against Utah.

So, it would appear that the key game this weekend, insofar as the Big 12 champion getting into the 2019 College Football Playoff, is the SEC Championship between LSU and Georgia. If Georgia wins, none of this matters. But if LSU prevails, as expected, settle in and buckle up for what should be another interesting and controversial Selection Sunday.

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