Oklahoma Basketball: Is It Payback Time Against Defending Big 12 Champs
By Chip Rouse
The fact that one of the three Oklahoma basketball losses this season was on the road at Kansas should be motivation enough for the rematch Saturday in Norman.
The two teams bring nearly identical season records into the game. Oklahoma is 20-3 and ranked 3rd in this week’s national rankings. The Jayhawks are 20-4 and ranked 6th.
One of Kansas’ 20 losses this season was a 109-106 victory at home in triple overtime over the Sooners early in January. That loss still stings in the hearts and minds of OU fans, not to mention the players, who had several chances to pull out the game in Lawrence.
Kansas is the only team in the Big 12 that owns a winning record over Oklahoma, and that margin is considerable. The two schools have played each other in basketball 208 times, and Kansas has prevailed almost 70 percent of the time, 142-66. The Jayhawks also own a winning record in games played in Norman, 48-42. Under head coach Lon Kruger, himself a native Kansan, however, the two schools have split four games played at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman.
This year’s Oklahoma team is a veteran-led bunch and easily the best Sooner team in Kruger’s five seasons at OU. Conversely, this is not one of Kansas’ strongest teams, even though the Jayhawks are very much in contention to win a 12th consecutive Big 12 championship in basketball.
The cards appear to be stacked in favor of Oklahoma in the season rematch. But in a conference that has been dominated by Kansas for over a decade, you can never rule out the Jayhawks’ chances or their ability to come up big in big games. And there are few bigger than this one.
Here is how we breakdown Saturday’s game between the Sooners and Jayhawks:
Who has the advantage on offense?
Oklahoma leads the Big 12 in scoring, averaging 81.8 points in its 11 conference games. The Sooners also have the Big 12’s leading scorer and the second best in the nation in Buddy Hield, who is averaging better than 25 points a game and shooting better than 50 percent from the field. With Hield on their side, the Sooners always have a chance to win. But Hield isn’t the only offensive weapon in the Sooner arsenal. Oklahoma has four starters scoring in double digits in conference games this season. In addition to Hield, Isaiah Cousins averages 13.6, Jordan Woodard 13.4 and Ryan Spangler 11.3. So taking Hield’s game away, you still have to be concerned with the ability of the other Sooner starters to put the ball in the basket.
Kansas is led by senior forward Perry Ellis, who averages 19.5 points against conference opponents and stands second in the Big 12 behind Hield. Frank Mason III (12.9), Wayne Selden, Jr. (12.2) and Devonte Graham (11.3) round out a balance Jayhawk attack.
Oklahoma is the more explosive offensive team, however. And the Sooners are deadly when you let them set up behind the three-point line. Not only does OU shoot an impressive 44 percent as a team on three-point tries, but it averages over 10 a game. The Sooners also lead the Big 12 in assists, producing almost 16 per game, tied with Baylor.
Edge: Oklahoma
Who has the advantage on defense?
A big reason that the Sooners are 20-3 this season and highly ranked is because they play good defense to complement an outstanding offensive game. Perhaps the best way to describe Oklahoma’s defensive play this season is: It may not be pretty, but it is very effective. The Sooners have the best shot-blocker in the conference in sophomore Khadeem Lattin and they are second in the league in steals, averaging eight at game.
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Under Bill Self, Kansas prides itself on strong defensive play. That is the case again this season as the Jayhawks are second in the league in field-goal percentage defense. They are holding conference teams to 40-percent shooting and are also among the league leaders in scoring defense, yielding an average of 72 points a game. Kansas is also a good rebounding team. In Big 12 play, the Hawks lead the league, averaging 38 boards a game, just slightly ahead of the Sooners.
Edge: Even
Bench Strength
In the earlier triple-overtime game between Oklahoma and Kansas, the Sooner starters played 240 of a possible 275 combined minutes. The Oklahoma bench was outscored by the Kansas reserves 24-5 in that game. The Kansas reserves may not be more talented than the OU bench – although I suspect they are – but they clearly get more playing time than the OU bench. Four Oklahoma starters (Hield, Cousins, Woodard and Spangler) have started every Oklahoma game for the past three seasons. They know each other well, know each others strengths and weaknesses and they are an experienced bunch that has great trust in each other. Coach Lon Kruger is taking full advantage of that chemistry and confidence, which leaves limited playing time for the Sooner reserves, other than to spell a few minutes for the starters.
Edge: Kansas
Who will win the Game?
I recognize that I have great bias when it comes to University of Oklahoma sports, but I feel pretty strongly that the Sooners are going to come out on top in the rematch. There will be nervous moments, and the game will be played relatively close, but I am predicting a OU victory. Oklahoma 82, Kansas 75.
They save good defense beats good offense the vast majority of the time, and especially in big games. In Saturday’s rematch of Oklahoma vs. Kansas in 2015-16, better offense will prevail over very good defense. Game, set, match to the Sooners.