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Sooner Football: ESPN’s Power Index Give OU Best Chance of Winning Big 12

By Chip Rouse

Sep 17, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners fans during the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners fans during the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sooner football has gone backward this season, now off the national radar after a disappointing three-game start.

Sep 17, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Mark Andrews (81) scores a touchdown past Ohio State Buckeyes safety Malik Hooker (24) during the second half at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Mark Andrews (81) scores a touchdown past Ohio State Buckeyes safety Malik Hooker (24) during the second half at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /

Oklahoma may have lost favor among the voters in the two major national college football polls, who are looking mainly at past performance or what have you done for me lately. But with three-quarters of the season remaining to be played, other prominent sources haven’t given up on the Sooners.

The Sooners’ first three games represent arguably the most difficult stretch to open the season of any team in the country. They won’t face any team the rest of the 2016 campaign as good as Ohio State and Houston, both ranked in top-10 nationally.

On Saturday, Oklahoma begins Big 12 play, heading to Ft. Worth to take on the 21st-ranked TCU Horned Frogs.

Despite the Sooners’ rocky season start, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) likes the reigning Big 12 champions a lot looking ahead. The FPI measures the overall strength of a team projects its performance going forward over the rest of the season. FPI results are based on 10,000 computer simulations of the rest of the 2016 season, factoring in results to date and the remaining schedule for every team.

Based on this, the FPI results after Week 4 have Oklahoma as the highest ranked team from the Big 12, at No. 12 in the country. The FPI also gives the Sooners the best chance – 33.7 percent probability – of winning the Big 12 a second consecutive season. That is down from the 63.9-percent chance Oklahoma had of winning the conference crown, according to the FPI preseason rankings.

Oklahoma State is the next best team in the Big 12, based on the Week 5 FPI figures. The Cowboys rank 17th, with a 7.6 percent chance of winning the Big 12 this season. Baylor, which beat Oklahoma State this past weekend, is right behind the Cowboys at No. 18. FPI projects the Bears with a better chance of winning the Big 12 than Oklahoma State, at 22.4 percent.

TCU (2-1) ranks 25th in FPI (13.0 percent chance), West Virginia (3-0 with a 10.8 percent chance),Texas 33rd (2-1, 4.8 percent), Kansas State 39th (2-1, 2. 2 percent) and Texas Tech (2-1, 1.6 percent).

The top five teams in the ESPN FPI this week are 1. Louisville, 2. Alabama, 3. Michigan, 4. Ohio State and 5. Clemson.

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