By historical standards, this has not been good season for Oklahoma football. The Sooners are in danger of suffering their second losing season in the last three years and just their fifth in the last three decades.
Brent Venables is in his third season as Oklahoma head coach. He has amassed an overall record of 20-12 but against conference opponents is just 11-12. If the Sooners aren't able to win at least two of their final four games in the 2024 season, they will not be eligible to play in a postseason bowl game for the first time in 26 years
Through eight games in the 2024 season, Oklahoma is one of four SEC teams with one or fewer conference wins, and the Sooners three remaining league games are against teams that are currently ranked in the nation's top 25, and each has been ranked in the top 10 this season. That is the challenge facing Oklahoma over the final month of the season and what stands between the Sooners and the risk of finishing at or near the bottom of the conference standings.
You have to go all the way back to 1931 and the former Big Six Conference for the last time an Oklahoma football team finished in last place outright or tied for last place in the conference standings. John Blake's Sooner teams (1996-98) ended the season with a losing record in all three seasons he was head coach, but none was the worst team in its five-team division
Today, the Crimson & Cream are back home—resilient, determined, and seeking a spark.
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) November 2, 2024
Scene Setter presented by @FollowMercy pic.twitter.com/g6yDVxlBYC
Entering Week 10 of the college football season, Oklahoma and Auburn (the team the Sooners beat for their lone conference win) are tied with 1-4 league records, Kentucky is 1-5 in league play and Mississippi State is still looking for its first win after five conference games.
Auburn hosts Vanderbilt this weekend and should be favored at home, but Vandy upset Alabama earlier this season and lost by just three points to Texas. Auburn's two remaining league games are against Texas A&M and Alabama. Chalk suggests that the Tigers will win one of those three games. If that plays out, Auburn would finish 2-6 in conference play.
Kentucky has already lost five games to SEC foes and is on the road this weekend to face Tennessee and closes out conference play in two weeks on the road again at Texas. If Kentucky loses both of those game, the Wildcats would finish out the 2024 season with a 1-7 record in SEC play.
Mississippi State, led by former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, is still looking for its first conference win. Like the Sooners, the Bulldogs are facing a nonconference opponent this weekend (UMass) but finish out the season on the road at Tennessee, at home against Missouri and at Ole Miss, all currently ranked in the top 25. MSU's best chance to avoid going winless in the SEC this season is probably against Missouri. Ironically, the Missouri Tigers might also be the Sooners' best chance of getting a second conference win this season.
Given the remaining schedules for Kentucky and Mississippi State, it is reasonable to conclude that Kentucky will finish with a 1-7 conference record, and that would likely be the best Mississippi State could do if somehow they are able to avoid going 0-8.
Assuming Oklahoma is able to take care of business this weekend against FCS opponent Maine, the Sooners would need a win in one of their three remaining games (Missouri, Alabama and LSU) to become bowl eligible. That would seem to be enough motivation to steal a victory in one of those three season-ending contests. If that, in actuality, is what happens, the Sooners will likely end their first season in the SEC with a 2-6 conference record and be headed to a bowl game for the 26th straight year.
If not, and OU ends up on the short end of the score in its final three games, it appears both the best and worst the Sooners could do is finish in a two-, three-, or even a four-way tie for last place with a reprehensible 1-7 conference record and 4-8 overall.
Anyway you care to slice and dice through all of these probabilities, Oklahoma is going to finish out its debut season in the SEC even lower than the low 8th-place expectations that were projected for the Crimson and Cream prior to the start of the 2024 season.
A Bummer instead of a Boomer of a Sooner season!