Why this is the worst time for Oklahoma to fire Brent Venables no matter how the season ends

The Oklahoma Sooners are always a big fish in any pond, but the coaching carousel during this college football this season will be the Pacific Ocean.

OU head coach Brent Venables entered Year 4 on the hot seat, and after the Sooners suffered a second loss of the season on Saturday against Ole Miss to drop to 6-2, the temperature is still high. The Sooners end the season with a daunting stretch that includes four ranked opponents in their final five games. That road could still lead to the College Football Playoff for the Sooners, but also a season equivalent to what they experienced last year. No matter how this season ends, though, this could be the worst time for OU to fire Venables.

College football coaching carousel could save Brent Venables' job with Sooners

On Sunday evening, LSU fired Brian Kelly. The Tigers just lost back-to-back games to fall to 5-3 during a season that had national championship aspirations. LSU is now the only unranked team left on the Sooners’ schedule.

Kelly became the 12th college football coach already fired this season, and it’s not even November yet. It was also the eighth coaching change at the Power Four level and third in the SEC, including Florida and Arkansas. Auburn is also expected to eventually axe Hugh Freeze, and on Saturday, a report surfaced that Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian could leave Austin for NFL opportunities.

It’s as simple as supply and demand, and demand for home-run coaching hires will be at an all-time high this year. Yes, OU would be one of the top jobs in America, but there would still be competition for the top candidates with the likes of LSU, Penn State and Florida, and that group could only grow. And before you say it, no, Bob Stoops is not going to coach the Sooners again, so that’s not an easy fix.

OU also still has its own internal issues to figure out before making any big moves. Athletic director Joe Castiglione is retiring at the end of the year, so it might not be the best move to have him make a monumental hire on his way out. But if OU waits until a new AD is hired, it’ll already be too late.

There’s also the driving force behind every decision: money. According to USA Today’s coaches salary database, Venables’ buyout is over $36 million. OU would also have to buy out the contracts of each assistant. That’s well over $40 million spent before even starting to hire a new coach.

OU would definitely shell out the money if those in charge believed it was best to move on from Venables, but if a university is going to make that move, it better make sure it makes the right investment. And right now, that’s unlikely because of the high demand and a big-time coach costing more than ever in 2025.

Lane Kiffin is currently the prized candidate for the top jobs, but to pry Kiffin away from Ole Miss, it’ll cost another $36.6 million. Kiffin, if he does leave Oxford, will also use the market in his favor to create a bidding war to see who wants the offensive guru the most, as will any hot candidate.

Venables could still very well do enough to save his job and keep OU brass from making these decisions. However, even if things tank in Norman, patience will be required. The state of college football could force the Sooners to settle with Venables for another season, but they could have to settle even more for a new hire in 2025.