Alabama is a 6.5-point underdog in its College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup against No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl on Friday. But what if it had been Oklahoma, not Alabama, going up against Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers?
Few people would have given the Sooners much of a chance against a 12-1 Indiana team that knocked off top-ranked Ohio State to win the Big Ten championship and is ranked in the top 10 in the country in both total offense and total defense.
Simulating a best-of-7 between OU and Indiana
Alabama obviously defeated Oklahoma in the opening round of the CFP, winning 34-24 and earning the right to face Indiana in the quarterfinals. But you could also argue that had the Sooners not beaten themselves, committing several costly mistakes at critical points in the game, it could just as easily have been Oklahoma moving on to the Rose Bowl to face the Hoosiers.
We were curious to see what might have been if it were No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 1 Indiana squaring off on Friday with the opportunity to be one of the final four teams standing in the playoff and advancing to face the winner of No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon in the national semifinals a week later.
To accomplish this fantasy exercise, we used the sports simulation website What If Sports to run a best-of-seven simulation to see which team, Indiana or Oklahoma, would have the best chance of coming out the winner in a head-to-head matchup.
The simulation does not factor in injuries, so both teams were theoretically competing at full-strength. Indiana being the higher-seeded team was designated as the home team and Oklahoma the visiting team with the game played on a neutral field. The temperature was set at 70 degrees with a light wind.
Moreover, there were five offensive options to choose from (heavy run, heavy pass, favor pass, favor run, West Coast and balanced). Oklahoma was designated as "favor pass" for the purposes of the simulation and Indiana as "balanced."
Surprisingly, the Sooners came out the winner in the first two simulations. OU won 23-19 in the first simulation, with John Mateer completing 20 of 33 passes for 231 yards and out-dueling Indiana's Fernando Mendoza 231-172 through the air. The Sooners also were victorious in the second simulation in an air-raid showdown. Mateer threw for 384 yards and a touchdown, while Mendoza accounted for 335 yards through the air and three touchdowns.
That was the extent of the Sooner Magic, however. The Indiana offense showed more balance and exerted its will after Oklahoma's two straight wins. The Hoosiers swept the next four simulations, scoring 30-plus points in each (30-23, 30-6, 30-23 and 34-13) and an average winning margin of 14.8 points.
By the way, Oklahoma and Indiana have faced each other in football just one time previously and not since 1928, when the Hoosiers prevailed 10-7 in Bloomington, Indiana.
Unfortunately, fantasy does not replace reality, although sometimes we certainly would like to think so. The Sooners were unable to take care of business in their season rematch against Alabama, and as a direct result, are destined to sit at home and watch the Crimson Tide and Indiana battle it out for a spot in college football's version of basketball's Final Four.
But it's always fun to ponder what might have been.