I gave my predictions for the Armed Forces Bowl, but the truth is, technology can probably do a better job than me.
Oklahoma and Navy will play in the Armed Forces Bowl at 11 a.m. CT Friday in Fort Worth, Texas. I used the video game College Football 25, which now has real rosters, to simulate how the bowl matchup could go. I simulated the game five times for a better sample size.
There are some things to note, though, especially with rosters in the midst of roster chaos. Between transfer portal exits and NFL Draft prospects sitting out, I had to update the depth chart with the most recent ones released because they did not match what the game already had. And that didn't always go smoothly.
In my own predictions, I put running back Xavier Robinson as my Offensive MVP. The freshman has just recently emerged as a contributor, though, so isn't even in the game yet. Usual RB1 Jovantae Barnes is hurt and not on the bowl depth chart, and technically there wasn't one starter named to replace Barnes.
For this simulation, I put OU's running backs as Taylor Tatum (81 overall rating), Gavin Sawchuk (81) and Sam Franklin (76), respectively.
Freshman starting cornerback Eli Bowen is also not in the game, so OU's starting corners were Jacobe Johnson (76 overall) and Woodi Washington (83 overall). There's an "OR" between Johnson and Washington at the other corner spot on the real depth chart.
Receiver is where the biggest confusion came. These rosters, for the most part, were inputted before the season and updated as the year progressed. The Sooners have experienced injuries to their top five receivers and six receivers enter the transfer portal even since then. At one point, a walk-on true freshman was OU's top receiver.
Deion Burks (87 overall) has been injured and is not guaranteed to play, but since he was on the depth chart and also featured on OU's game week poster on social media, I put Burks at slot for these simulations. Jacob Jordan (64 overall), the walk-on freshman, is actually in the game and Burks' backup.
Other receivers playing include Zion Kearney (74 overall) and Ivan Carreon (70 overall). Basically, this isn't exactly accurate so take it how you want with what OU has at receiver in real life.
The biggest change in the passing game is at QB with starter Jackson Arnold transferring to Auburn. Michael Hawkins Jr. will start and has a 79 overall rating compared to Arnold's 83. Casey Thompson is QB2 at 76 overall.
Defensively, OU will be missing its two highest-rated players in the game between Danny Stutsman (90 overall) and Billy Bowman Jr. (90 overall). Overall, though, there were pretty simple substitutions on defense besides at cornerback.
It's also worth noting that the video game won't take into account the Sooners' newly adapted play style relying heavily on the run.
Navy, meanwhile, wasn't missing a single real life starter in the game and is running the same offense with the same coaches.
With all that being said, here's what the CFB25 simulations projected to happen at the Armed Forces Bowl.
Simulation 1
Score: Oklahoma 27, Navy 22
Early on, CFB25 still likes a depleted OU team over the Midshipmen. Navy scored first and led 3-0 after the first quarter and led 20-14 at halftime. Navy scored only two on a safety the rest of the game, though, while the Sooners didn't do much offensive either but still enough.
Navy fumbled the ball twice while OU didn't have a turnover, which was the difference.
Taylor Tatum was OU's best weapom offensively, rushing for 107 yards and a TD on 15 carries, averaging 7.1 yards an attempt.
Michael Hawkins was 21-of-29 for 232 yards and two TDs without an interceptions. Pretty accurate day for the freshman. He also ran the ball 10 times for 26 yards, which honestly seems pretty accurate. Deion Burls was Hawkins' top target with six receptions for 103 yards and a TD. Zion Kearney caught the other TD.
Defensively, Jacobe Johnson, Jaydan Hardy and Woodi Washington each had five tackles.
Simulation 2
Score: Navy 20, Oklahoma 17
This was a close one, and despite the outcome, would be a fun one for college football fans to watch. It was tied 10-10 headed to the fourth before Navy added a field goal. Hawkins then had an 11-yard TD run that gave OU the lead with 7:05 left. But Navy won the game when Blake Horvath threw a 12-yard TD pass to Turner Stepp with exactly one minute left.
Tatum again led the Sooners but wasn't as productive with 62 rushing yards on 16 carries without a TD. Hawkins was also less efficient, going 16-of-27 for 203 yards and a TD with an interception.
Tight end Jake Roberts was solid in his last college game, leading OU with five catches for 57 yards. Kearney again caught a TD.
It was once again a trio of Sooners leading the way with five tackles apiece: Johnson, Jaren Kanak and David Stone.
Simulation 3
Score: Navy 28, Oklahoma 14
The game is starting to really like Navy, especially quarterback Blake Horvath, who accounted for four TDs in this simulation. The Sooners didn't even put points on the board until the fourth quarter.
Casey Thompson even got into this blowout, but Hawkins was still responsible for all of OU's points with a pair of TD passes to Burks and Roberts. Hawkins also led OU with 17 carries for 37 yards.
Simulation 4
Score: Oklahoma 14, Navy 10
The Sooners needed a comeback but pulled this one off thanks to a 4-yard TD run from Gavin Sawchuk with 5:55 left. OU was down 10-7 at the start of the fourth.
This game might have had a more realistic game plan, too, as Hawkins completed only nine passes for 125 yards. He did lead his team with 16 carries, though, for 41 yards. Tatum had 95 rushing yards on 11 attempts with a score.
Defensively, Adepoju Adebawore broke out with a eight tackles and a pair of TFLs. Washington and Kobie McKinzie both had interceptions.
Simulation 5
Score: Navy 46, Oklahoma 3
Oh boy. The last simulation was ugly and not sure Brent Venables would be allowed back in Norman after something like this.
The Sooners never found the end zone with 200 total yards and four turnovers, including a fumble and three interceptions from Hawkins, who was 7-of-18 for 107 yards. He also had 15 carries for 36 yards, while Tatum rushed 11 times for 57 yards. Jacob Jordan led OU pass catchers with three receptions for 61 yards.
Jaren Kanak led the way on defense with 10 tackles and a TFL.
Final thoughts
Overall, if these simulations were a series, OU lost 3-2. Most games were close other than that last one.
And even though the game doesn't take in account OU's reliance on the run game, things still usually worked out that way based on what the Sooners had to work with.
Most of the simulations were also low-scoring affairs, which is what I predicted and so did Vegas with the over/under set at 43.5.
Basically, this is a video game so take as much stock as you want in it, but it would be considered an educated guess that gives OU a 40% chance of winning the Armed Forces Bowl with freshmen Michael Hawkins Jr. and Taylor Tatum leading the way whether win or lose.