Predicting Armed Forces Bowl between Oklahoma, Navy

The Sooners and Midshipmen will finally meet Friday.

BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two weeks ago, we didn't even who would be suiting up for Oklahoma in its bowl game, but now that the dust has settled, predictions can be made.

The Sooners will play Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl at 11 a.m. CT on Friday in Fort Worth, Texas. But it will not be the same team in crimson and cream that you saw when the Sooners played LSU in the regular-season finale.

OU has experienced a mass exodus through the transfer portal, including a few starters, and has two defensive pillars sitting out as they prepare for the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Navy is basically at full strength for this one.

Amidst all this unpredictable change, here's how I predict things to go on Friday.

Offensive MVP: Xavier Robinson

With a handful of receivers and starting quarterback Jackson Arnold already somewhere else, the Sooners will need to rely on their running game in Joe Jon Finley's last game calling plays.

The Sooners are still deep at running back, though, with Xavier Robinson presmably leading the way. OU will also have all of its usual starting offensive linemen to pave the way for Robinson and for whoever else carries the ball back there.

The game plan and the fact Robinson ended the regular season as OU's best offensive weapon lines him up to be OU's offensive MVP.

Defensive MVP: Kip Lewis

Once again, the flow of the game will highlight some of OU's talent.

Danny Stutsman would have been a lock as Defensive MVP against Navy's option offense, but with Stutsman sitting out for the NFL Draft, another linebacker will have to step up and fly around.

Kip Lewis has been one to step up all season. He'll be manning that Will linebacker spot, and as the new leader of the defense with Stutsman gone, Lewis will emerge as the leading tackler and best playmaker on OU's defense, at least on Friday.

Expect a career-high in tackles for Lewis, and maybe even Kobie McKinzie at the Mike, too.

Score: Oklahoma 17, Navy 10

Don't expect a lot of fireworks in this one.

Navy's offense is famously known to run, run and run while draining the clock. OU once was, and now it's almost been back to the Barry Switzer days for the Sooners.

Most of the talent OU is missing is in the passing game. And the Sooners have already relied heavily on their running game the last two outings, even before the transfer portal stole their starting quarterback and a few receivers.

Even without Stutsman, OU's defense will be the difference here. The OU offense will struggle to get points on the board at times, but OU's defense will slow down Navy's offense even more.

Xavier Robinson and that running back talent, plus Michael Hawkins Jr.'s dynamic playmaking ability, will get the Sooners just enough to win this one and finish 2024 above .500.

Schedule

Schedule