Last week, it felt like the Vegas oddsmakers didn’t have enough faith in Oklahoma against Michigan. Now, it seems like the sportsbooks might actually have a little too much belief in the Sooners when hosting New Mexico.
But maybe we should take notes and learn something here? OU fans might even be able to take a little comfort in that.
The No. 24 Sooners welcome a dangerous 2-0 New Mexico team to Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium at 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday, which will also serve as OU’s Senior Night.
Despite the Sooners looking mighty underwhelming last week in a loss to Michigan and the Lobos rolling weak competition once again, Vegas still likes the talented blue blood. FanDuel listed OU as a solid 21.5-point favorite on Saturday morning.
This time last week, bettors were jumping on the Sooners, who seemed like a steal as *only* 4.5-point favorites over Michigan. That seemed like an obvious cover after OU blew out UTEP 51-0 in Week 1 and the Wolverines looked lifeless while needing an extra second and a miracle Hail Mary to avoid an upset to Western Michigan.
Obviously, that just ended up being an example of why those casinos are so fancy. Not only did the Sooners fail to cover with almost all of the college football world watching them, but Michigan won outright, 17-10.
A week later, the spread is somewhat head-scratching again, as Vegas still projects the Sooners to handle New Mexico after their offense was dysfunctional in the loss to Michigan. There’s an obvious step down in competition, but the Lobos are one of the best teams from the Group of 6 ranks.
Heck, it doesn’t matter who’s on the side, some OU fans might question if the Sooners can even score 22 points at all after what we saw last week.
Final odds for Oklahoma vs. New Mexico
Spread
-21.5 Oklahoma
+21.5 New Mexico
Moneyline
-3000 Oklahoma
+1200 New Mexico
Total (over/under)
+/- 45.5 points
Record against spread
Oklahoma 1-1
New Mexico 2-0
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Predicting Oklahoma vs. New Mexico
The most worrisome part about the Lobos is that they’re built to give these Sooners fits and keep things from getting out of hand.
New Mexico runs the ball often and will chew the clock to limit the Sooners’ chances to get comfortable. When they do throw, even while rotating two quarterbacks, the Lobos haven’t thrown an interception yet to give the opposing offense a short field. OU also hasn’t tallied an interception yet this season either, so maybe something will finally give on Saturday night?
Defensively, New Mexico has the No. 9 scoring defense in all of FBS while giving up 7.0 points per game, but it is worth noting that its two outings were against Central Michigan and Mercyhurst. OU ranks 13th in the same stat, giving up 8.5 points per contest
The difference in talent is an obvious point worth making, but these are still two stellar defenses going at it. When that happens, blowouts are rare.
If you really want to be spooked as an OU fan, the Lobos also have the best turnover margin in college football at +8. That number includes five interceptions for a defense now facing a quarterback in John Mateer, who’s prone to throwing to the other team.
To this point, though, the Lobos haven’t actually been tested. They’ve been quizzed with the study guide in hand. Now, they’re taking the ACT and haven’t had the correct material to prepare.
Some might have the Sooners on upset alert, and that might even look possible at halftime, but in the end, there are levels to college football. The Sooners are just too talented compared to New Mexico, and that wake-up call to Michigan is actually a benefit now. OU’s defense also won’t give much, if anything at all.
Vegas agrees, and we learned the hard way last week that oddsmakers know ball. I might not have the margin as large, but I still predict the Sooners to avoid an upset and head to No. 2 Georgia next week at 2-1.
Final score prediction: Oklahoma 27, New Mexico 10
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