The 11-seed Oklahoma Sooners on Friday night fell just short to No. 3 Arkansas 82-79 in the quarterfinals of the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament. The loss ended a late six-game winning streak that had propelled OU into the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation, but still ultimately one win shy of what was believed to be what the Sooners needed to get in, so Porter Moser will once again have to sweat it out until Selection Sunday to have any idea of his team's fate.
On Saturday, one day before the bracket will be announced, every major outlet that releases regular bracket projections still has the Sooners among the last few teams that could sneak into the NCAA Tournament despite not notching that elusive third SEC Tournament win.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi had OU as his first team left out as he had Texas as the last team to get in. CBS Sports had OU as the second team out after San Diego State, with VCU being the last team to sneak in and Missouri being the second-to-last. USA Today's Jordan Mendoza broke down the outlook for each bubble team and did not like the Sooners' chances while believing Texas has the best odds of getting in.
With Texas, Missouri, VCU and San Diego State ahead of the Sooners depending on the bracket expert, others who could get in their way include SMU, Auburn and Santa Clara. However, these bracket experts are just there to predict, and the ultimate decision comes down to the selection committee, so nothing is really known until Selection Sunday, and there's reason for the committee to jump OU over every other team on the bubble when time to make a final decision.
Why the Sooners belong in the NCAA Tournament over other bubble teams
Texas Longhorns
Although Texas seems to be the favorite to earn that last spot in the NCAA Tournament, no one has a worse case against OU than the Longhorns. There are no opinions, rankings or what ifs needed here. The Sooners beat Texas 88-85 in Austin less than a week ago.
The committee also tends to favor teams playing their best basketball in March, and the Sooners' victory over Texas was part of a six-game winning streak that finally ended Friday night. Meanwhile, Texas is 0-3 in March after getting bounced by 15-seed Ole Miss in the first round of the SEC Tournament.
The Sooners also have more overall wins than Texas thanks to that head-to-head matchup that should be the deciding factor.
Missouri Tigers / Auburn Tigers
Just like Texas, the Sooners beat both Missouri and Auburn within the last month and went further than both in the SEC Tournament. OU's victory over Mizzou on March 3 avenged an earlier loss in which the Tigers needed two buzz-beaters to beat Oklahoma in overtime.
If that last spot comes down to being an SEC team, it has to be the Sooners if head-to-head results mean anything.
VCU Rams
Unlike most teams on the bubble, VCU still has a chance lock in a spot with no doubt by winning its conference tournament while facing Saint Joseph's in the Atlantic 10 Tournament semifinals on Saturday. The Sooners need VCU to lose as quickly as possibly. At that point, the Rams have two Quad 1 wins against unranked teams compared to OU's four Quad 1 wins, which should make the Sooners more deserving.
Santa Clara Broncos
Similar to the argument against VCU, Santa Clara also has just two Quad 1 wins, and both were against the same team in Saint Mary's. The Broncos do, though, at least have a solid 6-1 record in Quad 2 matchups, but the Sooners match that total.
OU needs to be rewarded for a loaded schedule both in SEC play and in nonconference.
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State is a win over Utah State in Saturday's Mountain West Championship from guaranteeing a spot, so the Sooners again need a team to fall, especially since they have a better case over SDSU than Utah State.
Quite frankly, though, the Aztecs have a better argument than anyone over OU with a higher NET ranking and one more Quad 1 win. The Sooners need one less bid steal from VCU or any others so there aren't more spots erased to leave it between them and SDSU. Basically, the Sooners need the SEC reputation to benefit here.
SMU Mustangs
If the committee wants teams playing their best basketball in the NCAA Tournament, then leave SMU in Dallas. The Mustangs finished the regular season on a four-game losing streak. And again, OU is maybe the hottest team in basketball that could make some noise while SMU is destined for a first-round exit.