It seemed like a dream scenario that the Oklahoma Sooners suddenly had a chance to make the NCAA Tournament after what was overall a miserable season, then ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who initially sparked that hope for OU fans, brought the Sooners right back to reality.
Lunardi was on SEC Network on Wednesday right before the Sooners tipped off against South Carolina in the first round of the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament, and when asked point blank what OU needed to do to make it into the NCAA Tournament, Lunardi made it clear that the Sooners still have a lot of work to do despite being on the bubble.
Sooners need multiple SEC Tournament wins for March Madness hope
"They need to get to at least Saturday (of the SEC Tournament) for this to be a realistic conversation," Lunardi said.
Saturday would be the semifinals of the SEC Tournament, and to get there, the Sooners have to win three games, which would extend their winning streak to seven games, give them five Quad 1 wins and ultimately avenge four losses from the regular season. Heading into the SEC Tournament, OU is 17-14 and 7-11 in conference play.
First, the 11 seed Sooners have to get past No. 14 South Carolina, which beat OU 85-76 early in the conference season during the Sooners' nine-game losing streak that made this situation seem impossible.
Next, No. 6 Texas A&M is waiting. The Aggies beat OU twice during the season. Then, if the Sooners manage to get revenge on back-to-back nights, it's No. 3 Arkansas in the quarterfinals on Friday. The Razorbacks also already beat OU once before, 83-79.
That's a lot wins for a team that couldn't be gifted one only two months ago. And the Sooners would also need a few other teams to lose early in their conference tournament to open up more space.
According to Lunardi's latest bracket projections on Wednesday, before the Sooners played South Carolina, OU was the seventh team left out of the 68-team field as one of the next four out. That's six teams the Sooners would need to jump to even have a chance at one of the last few at-large bids, at least according to Lunardi.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 12, 2026
It's also worth emphasizing that Lunardi said winning three SEC Tournament games would just mean "a realistic conversation." Even then, nothing is guaranteed for the Sooners.
The Sooners definitely have a better chance than anyone ever imagined back in January, or even a week ago, but it's still not a good chance before OU fans start making March Madness plans that include the Sooners.