Oklahoma's regular season-ending home showdown against LSU this weekend looked much different 14 weeks ago. The Tigers were considered national title contenders to begin the 2025 season and featured one of the top three Heisman contenders in returning senior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
That was then, this is now...14 weeks later. And my how things have changed. LSU won its first four games of the season, including a season-opening 17-10 win over then-No. 4 Clemson. After Week 4, LSU was ranked No. 4 in the country. Interestingly, Oklahoma was ranked No. 7 at that point.
Since Sept. 20, however, LSU has lost four of its last seven games and comes to Norman with a sub-par 7-4 overall record by LSU standards and an injured Nussmeier, who has probably played in his final college game. Head coach Brian Kelly was relieved of his duties following an Oct. 25 loss to Texas A&M, and the Tigers are 1-3 against their last four conference opponents. Frank Wilson, former running backs coach and associate head coach, was named interim head coach after Kelly was fired. The Oklahoma game will be the fourth in his new role.
Saturday's game will be only the fifth game all-time between Oklahoma and LSU, and the Tigers' first-ever trip to Norman. LSU leads the limited series 3-1, including a 37-17 win last season in Baton Rouge.
Oklahoma is 3-0 this month, defeating three consecutive teams ranked in the top 25 (Tennessee, Alabama and Missouri), and has won 47 of its last 50 November home games.
The game on Saturday will be televised on ABC beginning at 2:30 p.m. CT with Mark Jones (play-by-play), Roddy Jones (analysis) and Quint Kessenich (sideline reporter) announcing.
What to know about LSU
- LSU ranks 15th out of the 16 SEC teams in scoring, averaging 22.4 points per game, and will be going against the conference's best scoring defense in Oklahoma, which is allowing just 13.7 points per game, sixth-best in the nation. The LSU offense ranks next to last in the SEC and 100th among FBS teams, averaging 344.9 yards per game.
- Michael Van Buren, a sophomore transfer from Mississippi State, will be making his third consecutive start at quarterback in place of the injured Garrett Nussmeier. Van Buren has completed 64% of his passes for 647 yards and four touchdowns in five games. The Tigers have won both of the games he has started over Arkansas and Western Kentucky by a combined four points.
- When LSU runs the ball, which is 45% of the time, Caden Durham and Harlem Berry are the main ball carriers, but the Tigers' rushing offense ranks last in the SEC at 3.6 yards per carry, and they'll be heavily challenged against the country's No. 3 rush defense.
- LSU is a much stronger defensively than it is on offense, ranked sixth in the SEC, allowing opponents just 313.0 yards per game. The key disrupter when the Tigers are on defense is redshirt-junior linebacker Harold Perkins, Jr., who has four sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in 11 games.
What to know about Oklahoma
- The Sooners are ranked No. 8 this week in the College Football Playoff Rankings. A win over LSU will all but assure OU of a playoff spot and a potential home playoff game, depending on how the various conference championship games turn out.
- Oklahoma has held seven opponents this season and five of its seven SEC opponents to 80 or fewer rushing yards, including Missouri, the nation's sixth-best rushing team, last weekend.
- Forty-one percent of Oklahoma's opponents' offensive plays (298 of 728) have gone for zero or negative yards.
- The Sooners had no takeaways over its first four games, but has 12 over the last seven games and seven over the last three.
Key matchup
Oklahoma has been outstanding all season on offense in the red zone. In the 32 times the Sooners have reached the red zone, they have come away with points all 32 times to lead the nation (23 touchdowns, nine field goals). In this game, however, Oklahoma will be opposed by an LSU defense that has held opponents to just a 69% success rate scoring points in the red zone, fourth-best in the nation.
Prediction
This is a game Oklahoma should win (the Sooners are 10.5-point favorites), but LSU is still loaded with talented players on both sides of the ball despite the recent chaos surrounding the program and is more than capable of springing the upset. The Sooners would like to see more from their offensive unit, but if the defense is able to shut down the LSU run game, as it has done against most every team this season, and make the Tiger offense one-dimensional, it will probably be a long afternoon for LSU.
Oklahoma 27, LSU 10