Sooners step out of SEC this week, hosting Maine in a must-win matchup

Oklahoma takes a breather from the snake pit that is SEC football, hosting the University of Maine, an FCS opponent, on Saturday afternoon at Gaylord Family--Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.

Maine becomes the fourth nonconference opponent on the Sooners' 2024 schedule. OU is 3-0 against the other three nonconference foes this season with wins over Temple, Houston and Tulane to open the 2024 campaign. This will be the first-ever meeting between Maine and Oklahoma.

The Black Bears (4-4, 2-3) are part of the Colonial Athletic Association and have won three of their last three games. Maine is coming off of 24-14 road loss to No. 15 (FCS) Rhode Island, but the week before posted a 35-7 home win over No. Villanova and was named Stats Perform FCS National Team of the Week.

Although Maine competes in the Football Championship Series, a level below the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), Oklahoma would be ill-advised to take the Black Bears lightly. In terms of the Sooners' chances of making a postseason bowl game, this is a must-win and an opportunity to build some confidence as they head into arguably their most difficult stretch of games to close the season.

Oklahoma needs two more wins to become bowl eligible. A win over Maine would be the Sooners' fifth win, but they would still need one more -- at No. 25 Missouri, vs. No. 14 Missouri or at No. 16 LSU -- to reach bowl eligibility and keep alive their streak of 25 consecutive bowl appearances, the second longest active streak in the nation. Georgia has been to 27 consecutive bowl games.

In seven previous games against FCS opponents since the 1999 season, Oklahoma has outscored those teams by 404 points with an average score of 67-4. The Sooners' most recent FCS opponent was Western Carolina in 2021. OU won that game by a score of 76-0. Given the Sooners' offensive struggles this season, Saturday's game should not be that one-sided.

Despite losing its last two home games (25-15 to Tennessee and 34-3 to South Carolina), Oklahoma owns the second-best home winning percentage (.905) since the start of the 1999 season (Bob Stoops' first as Sooner head coach). OU is 143-15 at home over that span.

Because Saturday's game is not scheduled for a national TV broadcast, Oklahoma chose a 1:30 start time, which was the standard kick off time for Sooner home games from 1962 to 1995. The game will be televised by SEC Network+ and ESPN+.

What to know about the Maine Black Bears

• Despite the difference in competitive levels, Maine statistical comparison is strikingly similar in several offensive and defensive categories. Maine averages 24.1 points a game; Oklahoma 21.1). Maine averages 316.8 yards of total offense; Oklahoma 293.3. Maine gives up 363.9 yards a game; Oklahoma 332.8.

• Maine quarterback, Carter Peevy, ranks second in the Colonial Athletic Association and eighth in the FCS with a completion percentage of 70 percent. He has 11 touchdown passes with four interceptions. His leading receiving target is Montigo Moss with 42 catches for 441 yards and three touchdowns. The Black Bears have three running backs, all with around 270 rushing yards for the season and over four yards per carry.

• Defensively, over the past five games, Maine has forced 10 turnovers (6 INTs and 4 fumbles) and has recorded 10 sacks. Defensive lineman Xavier Holmes ranks fourth in the CAA with 9.5 tackles for loss and sixth with 5.5 sacks.

• The game with Oklahoma is the 31st in Maine's history against an FBS opponent. The Black Bears are 4-26 in those matchups.

What to watch for from Oklahoma

• Quarterback Jackson Arnold will make his sixth start of the season. Arnold is coming off arguably his best performance of the season, albeit in a 26-14 loss to Ole Miss. He completed a season-best 22 passes on 31 attempts for 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns with no interceptions. He also grossed 99 yards on the ground, but lost 60 yards as a net result because of 10 quarterback sacks.

• The Sooners' leading rusher, junior Jovantae Barnes, has had his two best outings in OU's past two games. He recorded 70 yards on 17 carries, a 4.1-yard average, against South Carolina and 67 yards on 16 carries (4.2 average) last weekend against Ole Miss.

• True freshman wide receiver Jordan Jacob has played in just three games this season. In the last two alone (South Carolina and Ole Miss), he has 12 catches for 124 yards, and he caught his first career touchdown pass to give the Sooners a 14-10 halftime lead against Ole Miss.

• After five games, the OU defense was tied for third nationally with a plus-eight turnover margin (13 takeaways and five giveaways). In the last three games, however, that trend has reversed itself with the Sooners accounting for eight turnovers (six fumbles and two interceptions) with just two takeaways. Oklahoma was outscored 31-0 off of turnovers in those three games.

Weather forecast

Cloudy with light rain predicted (70 percent). Temperature at kickoff: 73 degrees, 70 degrees at end of game.

Prediction

Oklahoma was a 31.5-point favorite vs. Maine at midweek. That strikes me as a stretch given the Sooners' offensive struggles, but the Sooners should be able to win this encounter fairly handily. OU is 11-3 all-time against FCS opponents. The Sooners have done a good job all season shutting down the run game. They will do so against against the Black Bears and force them to beat OU through the air. The OU pass rush should mitigate some of the Sooners' back end woes and result in interception opportunities. OU wins big (for just the second time this season). Oklahoma 41, Maine 17