The 2024 college football season is going to be like no other we've experienced in recent memory. And that cuts both ways -- both good and not so good -- for fans of Oklahoma football.
By now, everyone who should knows the Sooners have switched leagues and are now competing in a conference in which Oklahoma is no longer the king of the castle -- now one of many in a similar position. And we have been inundated with countless cautionary tales of woe and forward-looking projections of how difficult and likely disappointing the 2024 season is going to be for Oklahoma football.
It's not that Oklahoma isn't still revered as a great football program -- the Sooners are ranked 16th in the nation, after all in both the preseason Associated Press Top 25 as well as the Coaches Poll -- but that seven of their companion SEC teams are ranked ahead of them. making OU no better than the eighth-best team in its own conference. That is something Oklahoma never had endure as a member of the Big 12.
It's an ever-changing landscape in college football. What was once the Power Five is now the Power Four with the decimation of the Pac-12. We're now living in a world of ambiguity where the Big 12 is actually composed of 16 schools and the Big Ten is up to 18 teams. Fifteen of the top-25 teams to start the season, and eight of the top 10, are from just two conferences.
Ironically, Oklahoma arguably is a better, more complete team today, with more overall talent and competitive depth than the Sooner teams that appeared in three consecutive College Football Playoff under Lincoln Riley. Yet because of its daunting 2024 schedule, which includes six teams ranked in the preseason top 25. Three of those contests are away from home plus the annual rivalry game with Texas that is played on a neutral field.
Because of that, the Las Vegas oddsmakers have projected the Sooners' win total at 7.5. Only twice in the last quarter-century has an Oklahoma team won fewer than eight games in a season. One of those, however, was just two seasons ago when Brent Venables took over for Riley and finished the season with a 6-7 record, something that is virtually unheard of in OU football history.
Another significant change in college football this season is the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to 12 teams. No longer do you have to go undefeated or lose no more than once, plus win your conference championship, to ensure a spot in the playoff. A three-loss team, especially one out of the SEC or Big Ten, can now get in as one of seven at-large teams because of the quality of teams they have to beat in their respective conferences to reach nine or more wins in a season.
That is the boat the Sooners find themselves in playing in the incredibly competitive SEC, where some of the best teams in the country reside.
The Athletic, which is a property of The New York Times has cited three SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama and Texas) as "legitimate national title contenders" and five more, including Oklahoma, as "legitimate playoff contenders."
While the Sooners' 2024 SEC schedule is definitely of concern, it should be looked upon by OU fans as an opportunity as much if not more so than the challenge it is largely perceived to be. It is not inconceivable that the Sooners could reach nine wins this coming season. Both ESPN and SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum and FOX Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt have as much as said so in recent days, and a 9-3 overall record, with the Sooners' strength of schedule, should be earn them a playoff spot.
How does Oklahoma get that done, you might ask? Simple, really. Win all four of your nonconference games (Temple, Houston, Tulane and Maine), starting with Temple this Friday. They won't be cakewalks, especially against Houston and Tulane, but the Sooners should be heavily favored in all four. If OU can earn a split in the six games with Tennessee and Alabama at home, against Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU on the road and with Texas in the annual Red River Rivalry game in Dallas, that would give them seven wins.
They play Auburn on the road on Sept. 28 and South Carolina at home on Oct. 19. If the Sooners were able to win both of those games, or say steal an extra win, going four of six against the six ranked teams on their schedule, the win total goes to nine or even 10. Not as outlandish as you might think.
Erik Smith of USA Today Sports is another one of the national writers that has higher expectations for the Sooners this season than most. He actually has Oklahoma making the College Football Playoff and playing at Notre Dame in the first round. He has the Sooners defeating the Fighting Irish and advancing to face Ohio State in the second round, with the Buckeyes prevailing. I believe any Sooner fan would gladly welcome that scenario even with a second round exit.
When it comes time for the CFP selection committee to pick the 12 playoff teams, Smith writes, a 9-3 record by the Sooners should likely be enough to overcome a 10-2 team that did not play as strong a schedule.
Chaos this season, like what has already happened to No. 10 Florida State in Week Zero, could definitely benefit a team like Oklahoma and turn quite a few expert heads in the process. The Sooners have to avoid becoming a victim or a consequence of the inevitable chaos and make sure they beat the teams they are supposed to beat, while also managing to steal some of the games in which they likely won't be favored.
As Venables likes to say, over the course of the season, the body of work the Sooners put in will ultimately determine how good this team can be. The one thing we know with certainty, though, is they're ready to get after it.