How will Oklahoma fare in 2024 SEC football by the 'Rule of Thirds'?

Everybody knows that Oklahoma is out of the Big 12 and, along with Texas, is now a bona fide member of the powerhouse SEC. Every Sooner football fan now knows that the schedulers did not do Oklahoma any favors in its inaugural SEC season.

The late major league Hall of Fame manager Casey Stengel once said, you're going to win a third of your games and lose a third every season. It's what you do with the remaining third that will determine the season.

Although not an ideal analogy, given that the MLB season is 162 games (154 when Stengel was active) and the college football regular season consists of just a dozen games, we thought it interesting to consider how the "Rule of Thirds" might work if applied to the 2024 Oklahoma football season.

The Sooners will play an eight-game conference schedule this season along with four nonconference games. To make this a more meaningful exercise, let's apply the Rule of Thirds just to the SEC portion of the schedule, recognizing that the conference slate does not equally divide into thirds. This may change in 2025, however, if reports are correct that the SEC is considering going to a nine-game conference schedule.

Following this methodology, let's assume Oklahoma will for sure win two conference games and lose to three other SEC opponents. That would leave three conference matchup in the toss-up category. The outcome of those three toss-up games would mean the difference between a 2-6 league record and a rewarding 5-3 conference mark, which could potentially translate to a nine-win season (assuming, of course, that the Sooners uphold their expected favorite status against their four nonconference foes.

The sure wins in my estimation are against South Carolina and Tennessee, both of which are OU home games. The probable losses are Texas, Alabama and at LSU. My reasoning here is that the Sooners are a better team than South Carolina, and although Tennessee is ranked in the preseason top 25 and is fully capable of beating the Sooners with former OU assistant and All-American Josh Heupel as head coach, I believe Oklahoma will show up and show out against the Vols with this being the Sooners first SEC game.

The reasoning for the three conference losses:

• Texas probably should have beaten OU last season (sorry, Sooner fans), and the Longhorns sure as heck are smarting from how that game went down. This is a rivalry game, which means anything and everything goes regardless of the record or rankings, but Texas is again the better team this year.

• Yes, Nick Saban is no longer parading the sidelines at Bama, but this is still an outstanding Alabama team and considered one of the top five teams in the country to begin the 2024 season. The game is being played at OU, and the Sooners have an extra week to prepare. But this is still Alabama with a veteran team, and the Crimson Tide get to scrimmage against and feast on Mercer the week before as a tune up.

• Why will the Sooners lose to LSU? Because it's the final game of the regular season for both teams and it is at LSU, which is arguably one of the toughest places to play in all of college football. Plus it will be Senior Day at LSU. Oh, and to add insult to injury, the game follows the week after the Alabama game.

OK, that leaves us with three conference games that could go either way and will, in large part, determine if the Sooners only win six games in their debut in the SEC, as one media type has predicted, or as many as eight or nine, which is above what the Las Vegas oddsmakers have projected.

By process of elimination, the games I believe are the most important for Oklahoma to get in the win column if it is to have what the Sooner faithful would consider to be an acceptable, if not successful, first season in the toughest conference in college football are Sept. 28 at Auburn, Oct. 26 at Ole Miss and Nov. 9 at Missouri. In case you didn't notice, all three are road games.

How important are these three SEC games to Oklahoma?

Ole Miss, Missouri and Auburn had a combined record of 28-11 last season, with Ole Miss and Missouri both finishing in the top-10 in the Associated Press poll. Oklahoma and Mizzou have a long history as members of the Big 12 and its previous iterations, while the Sooners have very limited history with either Auburn or Ole Miss.

In terms of the importance to Oklahoma in the 2024 season, I would rank them in this order: 1. Auburn, 2. Missouri and 3. Ole Miss.

Auburn Tigers

Oklahoma and Auburn have met just twice, both times in the Sugar Bowl (in 1972 and again in 2017), with the Sooners winning both games. The timing of this game is important in that the Tigers will probably come into this game with a 4-0 record. The following week, however, they travel to play at No. 1 Georgia. This will be the Sooners first road game as a member of the SEC, and they will have played and hopefully beaten Tennessee the week before. If Auburn were to get caught looking ahead to the following week's game at Georgia, OU could find itself in prime position for to pull off an upset against the team predicted to finish 10th, two spots south of the Sooners, in the final SEC standings this season. Prediction: Oklahoma wins by 10.

Missouri Tigers

Let's get this out of the way right up front. The 2024 edition of the Missouri Tigers is not your grandfather's Missouri team. This group of Tigers is among the top teams in the SEC and in the country. The Tigers finished No. 8 last season in the final Associated Press poll and with 11 wins, including a 14-3 win over Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Classic. Some SEC types would like to make this an annual rivalry because of the longtime conference relationship, but it hasn't been much of a rivalry despite the long connection, with the Sooners owning a 67-24-5 all-time record against Mizzou, including wins in 20 of the last 22 games.

Speaking of connections, there are several Tiger players who either played previously at Oklahoma or originally committed to play at OU. All-American candidate Luther Burden, one of the country's top wide receivers, committed to Lincoln Riley at OU in the 2022 class before decommitting and winding up at Missouri. Theo Wease, a former five-star wide receiver, played two seasons at OU, and offensive tackle Cayden Green played last season at Oklahoma before transferring. The Tigers also beat out Oklahoma for five-star freshman defensive end Williams Nwaneri. None of this sits particularly well at Oklahoma, which could give the Sooners added incentive to go to Columbia, Missouri, on Nov. 9 and show where those former OU players and recruits went wrong. Prediction: Oklahoma wins by a field goal.

Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma and Ole Miss have faced each other just one time on the gridiron. The Rebels defeated Bob Stoops' Sooners 27-25 in the Independence Bowl in 1999 in Stoops first season at OU. The Rebels won 11 games last season and return a veteran team in 2024 that is picked to finish 4th in the SEC. It's interesting to point out that as highly regarded as the Oklahoma wide receiver group is coming into the 2024 season, the wide receiver position group at both Ole Miss and Missouri are ranked higher than the Sooners by both the 2024 Phil Steele College Football Preview publication and Athlon Sports. Other than the road trip to LSU to end the regular season, Oklahoma's road challenge at Ole Miss is probably the most difficult of the season. This is an extremely tough matchup for the Sooners. Prediction: Ole Miss by 12.

Bottom line

If everything were to play out like this, Oklahoma would finish out its first SEC season with an 8-4 record and a 4-4 mark in the conference. A little below Oklahoma standards, but not all that bad considering the quality of the competition and the belief that things are only going to get better from here.