Fact or Fiction: The Oklahoma Sooners will cover their Vegas win total in 2024.

New feature here at Stormin' in Norman that we're calling fact or fiction. First question is a tough one: Will the 2024 Oklahoma Sooners football program win more than 7 games in 2024?
Arkansas State v Oklahoma
Arkansas State v Oklahoma / Brian Bahr/GettyImages

This is not an official prediction for the Oklahoma Sooners' 2024 season. This is a fact or fiction discussion to see if they can win 7 games in 2024 - a feat for year one in the nation's toughest football conference.

According to Las Vegas, the Sooners' 2024 win total is +/- 7.5 games. For non-gamblers, this means that the majority of sports betting experts think the Sooners 'should' win either 7 or 8 games. If you put your money on -7.5, you think they'll win 7 or fewer games. +7.5 means you think they'll win 8 or more. Here's where my money would go.

1. Friday August 30 - Temple (Norman, OK)

Temple went 3-9 last year, beating Akron, Norfolk State, and Navy. Since 2019, the Owls have been 0-7 against the top-25 teams. They have 5 returning starters on offense and 5 on defense. This is head coach Stan Drayton's first year as a head coach, and it starts in Norman... rough. The new-look Owls brought in 42 players this offseason through the portal and recruiting, which doesn't necessarily translate to early success, especially on the road in Norman on a fired-up Friday night. This one's a Sooner win. (1-0)

2. Saturday, September 7 - Houston (Norman, OK)

Houston went 4-8 last year in their inaugural Big 12 season. They were, and always are, a scrappy team with the athletes to hang with anyone. The Cougs aren't to be taken lightly. They are returning 5 starters on offense and 5 on defense. 1st-year head coach Willie Fritz gets his first big challenge on the road in Norman, where the Cougs have been excellent (6-0) against the spread as road dogs. Too much firepower to overcome, though. Sooners all day (2-0).

3. Saturday, September 14 - Tulane (Norman, OK)

Starting to get a little more challenging. Tulane has built themselves into a potential playoff representative for the group of five schools over the past 3 seasons, and they know it. Last year, the Green Wave went 11-3 and finished second in the AAC. They return 8 offensive starters and 7 defensive starters. Overall, Tulane will have a high-powered offense and a relentless defense that will prove to be OU's first test before SEC competition. However, with 2 games under the offenses' belt in Norman, I'm taking the Sooners (3-0).

4. Saturday, September 21 - Tennessee (Norman, OK)

Now, it means more. Josh Heupel's Volunteers come to town for the Sooners' first SEC showdown. Last year, the Vols went 9-4 and beat Iowa 30-0 in the Citrus Bowl. The Vols return 6 starters on the offense and 5 on the defense. Their defense could be one of the top in the SEC, especially if their talented secondary matures quickly. This one will be a shootout that comes down to the very end; however, I give the edge to the Sooners at home (4-0).

5. Saturday, September 28 - Auburn (Auburn, AL)

The Sooners will travel to Auburn, AL, for their first SEC road game, and Jordan Hare Stadium isn't to be messed with. The crowd in Aurbun is wild, and that place will rock when the new guys come to town. Last year, the Tigers went 6-7 and finished their year with a loss in the Music City Bowl to Maryland 31-13. Auburn is one of the most experienced teams in the SEC, returning 9 starters on offense and 8 on defense. Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne should be finding his form around this time, and he has already proven he can ball. This one is tough to call. If the game is played in the afternoon, I give it to the Sooners; if it is in the evening, it could be a different story. Just so I don't seem like a complete homer... (4-1).

6. Saturday, October 12 - Texas (Dallas, TX)

Red River time again. This year, like last year, the Sooners face a stacked Texas team. If both teams are healthy and have hit their stride, this game will be an epic battle again. Ewers is arguably the best quarterback in the SEC, and the Longhorns' skill positions have been reloaded. Texas' defense is stacked, too, especially at the linebacker position. If Ewers finds a reliable connection, like he had with Mitchell and Worthy last year, Texas will be hard to stop (4-2).

7. Saturday, October 19 - South Carolina (Norman, OK)

Shane Beamer's Gamecocks are in a rebuild of sorts. They went 5-7 last year and lost their experienced signal caller, former Sooner Spencer Rattler, to the New Orleans Saints. The week before they play the Sooners, they'll face off against the Tide in Tuscaloosa, a tough two-game stretch. I take the Sooners in a bounce back from the Red River Rivalry (5-2).

8. Saturday, October 26 - Ole Miss (Oxford, MS)

Ole Miss went 11-2 last year and won the Peach Bowl against Penn State. They're good again this year, too. QB Jaxson Dart is one of the best at the conference, and he fits Kiffin's system perfectly. Oxford, MS, is an underrated place to play difficulty-wise. Add this to the fact that the Rebs return 10 starters on both sides of the ball, and you will start to see how good this Rebels squad could be (5-3).

9. Saturday, November 2 - Maine (Norman, OK)

The ol' "SEC week off game." Sooner Nation has wanted one of these built-in games for a long time, and now, since the SEC is our new home, we get one. The Sooners need it, too, as they enter a brutal 3-game stretch to end the year (6-3).

10. Saturday, November 9 - Missouri (Columbia, MO)

Old Big 12 foe Mizzou differs from when the Sooners were in Columbia last. This Mizzou program went 11-2 last year and dominated Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. The Tigers also have the best wide receiver in the country, Luther Burden. Brady Cook to Luther Burden will be one of the SEC's most lethal combinations this year. OU wins this one in a shootout as Mizzou can't go to Burden all game, as they fall short in overtime (7-3).

11. Saturday, November 23 - Alabama (Norman, OK)

The Tide are finally coming to Norman, luckily without Nick Saban. However, Kalen Deboer is no stranger to big-time college football, and neither are his 13 returning starters from the SEC champion Tide squad of last year. Both teams will have shown their true colors by late November, so this game will be close depending on how Arnold is doing and how tight the defense is playing. If Jalen Milroe is firing on all cylinders and the Tide are competing for another title, this game may be challenging to win (7-4).

12. Saturday, November 30 - LSU (Baton Rouge, LA)

Baton Rouge is the toughest place to play in the SEC, period. That place is wild, especially at night. This is a brutal way for the Sooners, who have the most challenging SEC conference schedule, to end the year. Depending on how Kelly's offense is doing, the Sooners will most certainly have their hands full. Luckily, LSU returns 6 starters on both sides of the ball, and they have a new QB. I say Arnold is red hot, the O-Line has it figured out, and the defense is locked in (8-4).

So, for 7.5 wins, I take the over. Of course, Vegas is always right, so it comes down to the last game of the year. The realistic expectations exist for the Sooners to beat Ole Miss, Texas, and Auburn and sit at 11-1. There is also a realistic potential for the Sooners to drop one against Mizzou or LSU and end up with 6 wins.

Once again, this is not my official prediction for the 2024 year; that'll come in August when fall camp is in full swing. I just figured if I were a betting man and Vegas had the Sooners' line at 7.5, I'd take the over.