ESPN's Matchup Predictor has OU finishing higher in SEC than most other forecasts

The 2024 college football season is finally coming Sooner rather than later for Oklahoma Team 130 with just 13 more days to go before the season kickoff against Temple.

It will have been 245 days since Oklahoma's last football game, a 38-24 loss to Arizona in the Alamo Bowl. The Sooners were representing the Big 12 in that contest, but as they prepare in training camp this month for the start of a new college football season they are sporting a new conference logo on their jersey, that of the SEC.

After close to three years of preparation and anticipation, OU has officially switched its conference allegiance to the SEC, where it goes from being the big dog to a league with a number of big dogs. What's ironic about the Sooners' new football environment is that the team nationally ranked 16th in both the Associated Press and Coaches preseason polls is projected as only the eighth best team in the SEC this season.

Welcome to the crazy new world of Oklahoma football, where virtually every week you're playing a team ranked in the nation's top 25. The general opinion throughout the media that cover college football is that the 2024 season will be a difficult one for third-year head coach Brent Venables and the Sooners.

Let the games begin

The season -- or should we say, preseason -- for talking about all of this is about to come to an end, and we shortly will see what the Sooners themselves have to say about all of it as the actual games are played.

Several weeks ago, ESPN media personality and SEC advocate Paul Finebaum sent a few shockwaves through the college football world by suggesting that Oklahoma could win nine games in the coming season. Finebaum may know something that no one else seems to know. Or perhaps he got hold of an advance copy of how the ESPN Matchup Predictor views the Sooners' win probability this season on a game-by-game basis.

The ESPN computer has Oklahoma winning nine games, losing three and finishing sixth in the SEC this season. The Matchup Predictor has the Sooners losing to Texas, Missouri and Alabama. A 9-3 record would put OU right at the doorstep of the College Football Playoff, but probably still on the outside looking in.

What could be...

Here is the Oklahoma schedule breakdown for the coming season and the Sooner win probability for each game on the basis of thousands of ESPN computer simulations of each game.

Aug. 30, Temple Owls (98.7 percent)

Sept. 7, Houston Cougars (92.3 percent)

Sept. 14, Tulane Green Wave (91 percent)

Sept. 21, Tennessee Volunteers (59.9 percent)

Sept. 28, @ Auburn Tigers (62 percent)

Oct. 12, Texas Longhorns @ Dallas (34.6 percent)

Oct. 19, South Carolina Gamecocks (81.3 percent)

Oct. 26, @ Ole Miss Rebels (53.5 percent)

Nov. 2, Maine Black Bears (98.8 percent)

Nov. 9, @ Missouri Tigers (45.8 percent)

Nov. 23, Alabama Crimson Tide (48.8 percent)

Nov. 30, @ LSU Tigers (52.4 percent)