If blue-chip recruiting consistency were a primary measure and predictor of the teams with the best chance to win the national championship every season in college football Oklahoma would be a team in high standing in 2024, according to CBS Sports.
The Oklahoma Sooners, who in a few more days will be welcomed in as a new member of the super conference known as the SEC, are among an elite group of teams, singled out by CBS Sports, as "the top 10 percent of teams that realistically have a shot at (making the 12-team College Football Playoff and) winning the title" in 2024. This is based on a calculation known as the Blue-Chip Ratio, created by Bud Elliott of CBS Sports
The premise behind the Blue-Chip Ratio, Elliott says, is "to win a national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (aka 'Blue Chips') than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes."
The 2024 Blue-Chip Ratio list includes 16 teams. Oklahoma ranks No. 6 on the list, with 73 percent of the Sooners' recruiting classes over the past four years composed of players rated as four- and five- stars coming out of high school. Three SEC teams are ranked ahead of the Sooners -- Alabama (88 percent), Georgia (80 percent) and Texas A&M (79 percent) -- while Texas and LSU are listed behind OU at 72 and 70 percent, respectively
The Venables Effect: Oklahoma's blue chip ratio has improved from 66% (Lincoln's last year) to 73% in 2024! pic.twitter.com/DKzEyheaJc
— The Main Line Podcast (@TheMainLinePod) June 25, 2024
Elliott is quick to point out that the Blue-Chip Ratio clearly does not guarantee a national championship or even that a team will contend for one. Many factors beside the talent ratio play a factor in how a team with top talent will ultimately perform. Strength of schedule, the health and depth of the players at key positions and, of course coaching and player development.
But no teams wins a national title by player development in lieu of elite recruiting, Elliott says.
The concept of the Blue-Chip Ratio was first introduced in 2013. Since then, the teams on the list every year have included the national champion.
The Blue-Chip Ratio does not include transfers. There are a couple of reasons for this, Elliott explains. One is that the sample size is still small. Another is that the best teams recruit the high-school level exceedingly well and then use the portal generally to fill in areas of need.
If transfers were included, however, in the 2024 BCR calculation, practically every team's percentage goes down. Oklahoma, for example, drops to 63 percent and down two spots to No. 8. With transfers factored in, Texas (70 percent) and LSU (66 percent) would both jump over the Sooners
At the very least, this underscores the high quality of the Sooner recruiting in Brent Venables three seasons as head coach and the importance of such as Oklahoma moves to the SEC. All three of the OU recruiting classes Venables has had a hand in have finished in the top 10 of the national rankings, and his 2025 class currently sits at No. 4 in the 247Sports team rankings and No, 5, accoring to Rivals.