Heading into the daunting backend of their schedule, the Oklahoma Sooners don’t just have a chance to make the College Football Playoff, but one of the best chances to. At least for now.
After starting the season 6-1 before playing five ranked opponents in a row to conclude the season, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, the No. 13 Sooners have a 42.9% chance to make the 12-team field of the CFP heading into Week 9.
ESPN FPI has Sooners in College Football Playoff
ESPN’s FPI is a predictive system developed by Bill Connelly that uses the strength of teams to project how they’ll finish.
The Sooners’ 42.9% chance to make the CFP come December is the 11th-best based on ESPN’s FPI, which would put them in the 12-team bracket if the season ended today. It would also make OU the last of five SEC teams to make the cut, including Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss.
ESPN’s FPI also projects OU’s final record to be 8.5-3.6, which even a slight change in decimals for one win or loss could be a major shift in the Sooners’ CFP destiny. The Sooners are likely in at 9-3, especially considering their schedule ahead, but there’s almost no way the committee puts an 8-4 team into the playoff no matter how tough the end of its season is.
That 42.9% chance will drastically change for better or worse after Saturday, though, when the Sooners host No. 8 Ole Miss, which is also 6-1 and has a 48.4% chance of making the CFP, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Saturday’s outcome could basically decide if the Sooners finish at 9-3 or 8-4, or even worse. A win over Ole Miss could launch OU’s chances beyond 50% next week, while a loss will likely slash the Sooners’ probability.