After being left out of the top 25 of the preseason Coaches Poll, Oklahoma has not only moved into the No. 12 spot in the Week 4 Coaches Poll, but now is projected to make the College Football Playoff by most major outlets.
It may still be early in the season with a wide array of marquee matchups on the immediate horizon, including eight by Oklahoma against SEC teams currently ranked in the top 25, but the even bigger news for Sooner fans at this early stage is that while the major outlets have Oklahoma in the 12-team CFP field, the same outlets have preseason No. 1 Texas on the outside looking in.
Sooners projected to make College Football Playoff
We all know things can and will change over the next 11 weeks. There is no practical way that the Sooners are going to navigate through the brutal schedule that is ahead of them without potentially losing two or three games. Based on what we have seen out of the 2025 edition of Oklahoma football so far, though, it does not seem unrealistic that the Sooners could win as many as nine games this season and five of eight in conference play.
If the Sooners can stay healthy and continue to get better as the season moves forward, which is the goal of every successful college program, and finish with a 9-3 record in a conference as strong top to bottom as the SEC -- and, oh yeah, not forgetting the gauntlet of ranked teams that OU will have to go through to achieve a nine-win regular season -- there should be no way Oklahoma would not make the playoff.
The conservative bet would be for Oklahoma to win all four of its nonconference games and split its eight-game conference schedule. Before the season started -- with Texas QB Arch Manning the heavy favorite to win the Heisman and the Longhorns favored by most to take home the national championship trophy -- no one of sane mind would have given the Sooners much of a chance to upset the Longhorns.
But the climate has turned since then, and the game with Texas in Dallas on Oct. 11 in the heart of the Texas State Fair might just be the best barometer on whether Oklahoma can reach the once unthinkable nine-win level this season.
At this early stage, the Sooners and every other team are in control of their own destiny insofar as being a CFP contender or pretender. It doesn't really matter what Texas does. It does, however, matter what Oklahoma does. What all the latest CFP hype directed at new-and-improved Oklahoma does do is shine an even brighter light on this year's Red River Rivalry a few weeks from now than the vast majority might have thought coming into the season.
The Sooners could, of course, lose the game with Texas and still conceivably win as many as nine games, but what the annual rivalry game should reveal is whether this Oklahoma team is good enough to beat the likes of Tennessee, Alabama and LSU, and seriously compete for a spot in this season's College Football Playoff.
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