It's not just coach-speak to emphasize how important the turnover battle is. The Oklahoma Sooners and their disappointing 2-2 record are proof of its importance.
Ahead of the Red River Rivalry on Saturday, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian admitted that he doesn't believe the Sooners' offense is as bad as what people are saying, but that it's just come down to "some untimely turnovers that have just hurt them." OU head coach Brent Venables has also said that his offense is its own worst enemy because of its constant mistakes.
OU's offensive problems are numbered, but the rival coaches have likely found the root of the Sooners' issues.
The Sooners have a -1.50 turnover margin, which ranks 136th of 138 teams in the FBS. It's also the worst among all Power 4 teams. The abysmal turnover margin is a result of the offense coughing up the ball 10 times through four games, while the defense has forced only four turnovers.
Of the Sooners' 10 turnovers, quarterback John Mateer was responsible for six of them, with four interceptions and a pair of fumbles. That's exactly why OU fans and college football experts are questioning whether the Sooners need to make a change at QB.
It's not all Mateer, though. Actually, it is all on him, and that's why he tends to force plays. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle has put the success of OU's offense on Mateer's shoulders with a lifeless running game and a leaky offensive line. Mateer is already turnover-prone, so the situation around him only enhances the trend.
There's also just flat-out bad luck. Watching these Sooners will have you believing in karma and wondering what kind of deal Venables made with the devil to upset Alabama in 2024 and save his job.
The Sooners have had a fumble touch the grass six times this season, and every single time, the opposing defense jumped on it first. Only two other teams have lost more than six fumbles this season, but of all the teams in the bottom 10 for fumbles lost, OU is the only one that has lost 100% of them.
Erasing turnovers could be difference in Sooners upsetting Texas
Blame Mateer or bad luck, but the Sooners are probably 3-1, if not even 4-0, without such an appalling turnover problem.
If not for consequential turnovers, the Sooners would have been in a 14-7 battle with No. 2 Georgia on the road at halftime in their last outing. OU was two yards away from making the score 14-7 when the ball just slipped out of Mateer's hand backward; then Chris Cole scooped it up and returned it to the end zone for a 14-point swing.
Mateer turned the ball over on three possessions in a row. He threw an interception the next drive, then coughed the ball up again, and Cole recovered it. That second fumble set up another Georgia touchdown to go to the locker room with a 28-0 lead.
The offense was dormant from start to finish in the Sooners' first loss to Michigan, but the nail in the coffin was Mateer's fourth-quarter interception that the Wolverines returned to OU's six-yard line. Two plays later, Michigan was in the end zone for what ended up being the game-winning touchdown.
Venables has still assembled an elite defense, but these turnovers have kept it from being a top-10 unit in college football again and from willing the Sooners to more wins. OU has given up 64 points this season, and 27 of those were influenced by turnovers. That means 42% of the time that an OU opponent scores, it's because of a turnover.
This is the thing that's keeping OU from being a good football team in 2026. There are just multiple factors influencing the most glaring problem, and it's impossible to erase bad luck. Maybe removing Mateer would rid OU of that bad luck, but there would then be an inexperienced quarterback prone to mistakes behind a bad offensive line and with no ground game to rely on.
What keeps hope alive, though, and also what's probably keeping Sarkisian up at night, is that if the Sooners do finally have even one turnover-free game, it could be enough to upset the No. 1 Longhorns or anyone across from them.
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