There's about a 1.3% chance that the Oklahoma Sooners' NCAA Tournament path gets cleared, but there is a chance.
The Sooners entered March Madness as one of the hottest teams in the country and would have been a popular upset pick in brackets around the country had it not been for a daunting draw.
OU was handed the dreaded 8-9 matchup that means a meeting with the best team in the region in the second round, making a run to the Sweet 16 and surviving the first week of the NCAA Tournament seem nearly impossible. And the Sooners were given an even more challenging task than most 9-seeds.
The 9-seed Sooners will get the 8-seed UConn Huskies in the first round. The Huskies haven't lived up to expectations this season, but are still the defending two-time national champions. There's no reason to ever underestimate a Dan Hurley team in March.
And if OU is hot entering the NCAA Tournament, then the Florida Gators will incinerate anything in front of them. The Gators were given the 1-seed and have emerged as a popular pick to win it all after making a run to a conference championship in the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament this past weekend.
Although Hurley and the Huskies are a scary matchup to start things, Porter Moser has OU playing its best ball right now, and the Huskies have underachieved all season in a much lesser conference than the SEC. This is a classic 8-9 matchup that could be predicted with a coin flip.
A 1-16 matchup almost always goes the same way, though, and OU needs the nearly impossible to happen on Friday. The Sooners have already played Florida once this season and were destroyed 85-63 in Gainsville. OU's likelihood of an NCAA Tournament run is dramatically different with or without the Gators in the way.
Best case scenario, 16-seed Norfolk State upsets Florida on Friday. However, in 156 tries since the matchup was created in 1985, 16-seeds have upset 1-seeds only twice. That gives 16-seeds a 1.28 winning percentage against 1-seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
First, UMBC took down Virginia in 2018. It took 33 years for the scenario to ever happen. More recently, Fairleigh Dikinson beat Purdue in 2023.
But what that does say, is that anything is possible in March, even a 16 over a 1.
If that doesn't happen, though, 9-seeds are 6-73 against 1-seeds, compared to 2-0 against 16-seeds. Historically, that's an 8.2% chance 9-seed OU takes down a 1-seed. In the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, only three 9-seeds have survived the first week and made it to the Sweet 16.
The Sooners' path after a miraculous upset somewhere in the first two rounds would then become a lot easier even until the Final Four. Those in the way could include 2-seed St. John's, 3-seed Texas Tech, 4-seed Maryland or another team on an upset run.
If the nearly impossible is accomplished this weekend, then the Sooners could be on course for a historical run in the NCAA Tournament.
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