The start of July has brought College Football Playoff and bowl predictions from multiple national outlets for the upcoming 2026 season, and although they’re only talking points to get us through the next two months before games actually start, these recent projections have pointed out a flaw that needs to be nipped in the bud long before these predictions become the same reality for the Oklahoma Sooners.
Twice now already, OU has been predicted to return to the CFP in 2026, which is obviously great, but both times the Sooners were projected to end up in another SEC rematch in the first round. And that’s just months after that was their reality last season.Â
The Sooners’ 2025 season concluded with a loss to Alabama at home in the first round of the CFP. That matchup came just over a month after OU had ended the Crimson Tide’s home winning streak in Tuscaloosa that was the longest in college football at the time. With everything going against them, the Sooners proved they were better than Alabama. Yet, the Crimson Tide still got a second chance when things mattered most after sneaking into the playoff with three losses.Â
Common sense says it’s extremely difficult to beat a great team twice, so the victor here actually has the disadvantage.Â
Sooners are staring down another CFP rematch possibility without necessary change
Now, college football experts are predicting the same ill fate for the Sooners again in 2026. Obviously a lot of football has to be played, but these predictions aren’t just made on expected results, but also the committee’s thought process based on past selections.Â
What Bill Bender of Sporting News projected was nearly the same nightmare to relive for OU fans. He sent the Sooners to play Ole Miss as the No. 9 seed to again lose in the first round. It would again be a rematch from barely a month before that the Rebels likely won as the higher-seeded team here.
Unlike the Sooners in 2025, though, Ole Miss, according to Bender, makes the most of home-field advantage and beats OU for the second time in a season. Regardless, that’s still an unfair situation to put Ole Miss in after already proving once before it was better than the Sooners. OU also deserves a crack at someone else, preferably from a different conference.
Athlon Sports also had the Sooners in another 8-vs-9 SEC rematch, hosting Texas A&M in the first round after the Aggies were in Norman just a few weeks before. Athlon Sports, though, finally had Oklahoma notching its elusive first CFP win for what would be its second victory of 2026 over the Aggies. Again, a matchup that shouldn’t happen on such a big stage after already being decided during the regular season.Â
Read more: Brent Venables had the exact response Oklahoma fans want to hear about CFP expansion
Disadvantages for teams or not, these CFP rematches are not enjoyable for fans or good for college football. If a goal of an expanded playoff is to drive engagement throughout the season, then those regular-season outcomes need to matter. And if the committee is creating unnecessary rematches in the CFP, then those regular-season results meant nothing. It also detours from really finding the best team in college football, which is the ultimate goal.
It might seem like an overreaction stemming from some preseason predictions, but the Sooners are already proof that this is a real problem that needs fixed.
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