Yes, we might be getting ahead of ourselves, but Oklahoma’s Week 3 opponent, New Mexico, suffering a devastating injury might actually end up hurting the Sooners more than it helps them, especially down the road.
New Mexico head coach Jason Eck announced on Thursday that starting quarterback Jack Layne will miss the entire season after getting surgery. New Mexico is no cupcake, but the Lobos still never really had a chance against the Sooners, especially inside Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. However, New Mexico was among a handful of teams that were poised to represent the Group of 6 in the College Football Playoff in 2026, so if the Lobos’ playoff chances are now dashed, that’s also a blow to the Sooners’ strength of schedule for their own CFP resume.
Layne was the centerpiece for the Lobos’ high expectations for 2026. He followed Eck from Idaho ahead of last season, then led the Lobos to a 9-4 record and first-place tie in the Mountain West while starting every game. Layne set a single-season program record with a 65.1 completion percentage while totaling 2,486 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his debut season at the FBS level. He and the Lobos were obviously expected to do even more this season in Year 2 under Eck.
Jack Layne injury could cost the Sooners an underrated non-conference win
Eck said the Lobos will now use three quarterbacks in their season opener against Central Michigan. That could still be their situation when they visit Norman on Sept. 19. College football fans who have been around long enough know that more than one quarterback actually means no quarterback at all.
New Mexico was never a game the Sooners could completely ignore, even while sandwiched between two ranked road trips to No. 16 Michigan and No. 3 Georgia. A slip-up in that trap game would be critical to the Sooners’ playoff hopes. That worry, if there was any, has been eased now, though, since the Lobos won’t have their best player.
Outside of always wanting to play a team at its best, the con to the Lobos’ burden is that easy win will now not look as impressive for the Sooners come December when the selection committee is creating a playoff field. It’s now less likely the Lobos go 11-1 and are the best Group of 6 option.
The Sooners have one of the toughest schedules in college football, but it might not look nearly as difficult by the end. Every other SEC team also has a difficult slate to boast, so these early non-conference matchups could be deciding factors for which SEC teams on the cusp get over the edge and into the CFP. Or even decide who gets to host as a 5-8 seed or who gets a first-round bye as a top-4 seed.
We’ve discussed the worst-case scenario of the Sooners starting out 2-3 but still running the table to get into the CFP at 9-3. That would mean OU lost its biggest non-con game against Michigan. A late win over someone like Texas A&M could serve as a play-in game.
But what about someone like LSU, which isn’t on OU’s schedule? Coming from the same conference with no head-to-head result, those non-conference games will be looked to as difference-makers. Suddenly, LSU could be favored to get in over OU, or the Sooners have to travel to Baton Rouge for a first-round game instead of getting the Tigers in Norman. Again, that's just an example.
That’s three months of football to look past, but getting back to the CFP is the Sooners’ ultimate goal to have a shot at a national title, and New Mexico losing its QB1 could impact OU more in December than Week 3.
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