"You are what your record says you are," as former NFL head coach Bill Parcells likes to say, and if you go by that theory, the Armed Forces Bowl matchup between Oklahoma and Navy appears pretty one-sided.
Oklahoma's 6-6 record in its debut season as a member of the fiercely competitive SEC is highly reflective of the Sooners' issues on the offensive side of the ball and a season riddled with injuries to key personnel.
Since the Sooners played their final game of the regular season, a 37-17 loss to LSU on Nov. 30, the team has acquired a new offensive coordinator (Ben Arbuckle from Washington State), a new starting quarterback (John Mateer, also from Washington State) and lost 25 players from the roster to the transfer portal, including starting quarterback Jackson Arnold.
No such issues face the Navy Midshipmen, whose record says they are 9-3. Navy's three losses, however, are very telling: a 51-14 loss to Notre Dame, 24-10 to Rice and 35-0 to Tulane, a team that Oklahoma defeated 34-19 earlier in the season. The Midshipmen had 113 yards of total offense against Tulane. That compares to 349 yards of offense by the Sooners against Tulane.
Full circle moment ⭕️
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) December 5, 2024
Get to know OC @arbuckle_ben#OUDNA pic.twitter.com/BfcsEG2eBB
The Oklahoma team that faced Tulane in September, though, was a different team than the Sooners who will be going against Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl at 11 a.m. Friday.
Michael Hawkins Jr. will replace Arnold at quarterback, leading running back Jovantae Barnes, who had 53 yards rushing against Tulane, will not play in the bowl game because of injury, and the Sooners will not have their four best receivers during the season due to the transfer portal (J.J. Hester, Bauer Sharp and Brenen Thompson) and injury (Deion Burks).
The Sooners will be down some players on the defensive side against Navy, as well. Consensus All-American linebacker Danny Stutsman is opting out of the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft process. As is teammate Billy Bowman. OU will also be without the services of several defensive backs who have elected to go into the portal.
Navy certainly turned some expert heads with the dominance the Middies displayed in disposing of archrival Army last weekend. If the Naval Academy is able to play that way against a depleted Oklahoma team, the Sooners could be in serious trouble, especially with the up-and-down performance they had all season, especially on offense with a more complete roster.
While Oklahoma started out as a 9.5-point favorite over Navy, the spread has been dropping the closer we get to the game. With less than a week to go, the odds still favor OU, but are now as low as -3.5 or -4.5, depending on which betting service you follow.
The odds may still favor the Sooners, but I've seen several media outlets, including College Football News, project a Navy upset of the Sooners.
On paper and all things being equal, and had this game been played in the middle of the season, you would think Oklahoma should be able to beat Navy. But that's the thing, things aren't equal for this bowl game.
I hesitate to remind everybody about what happened when Army came to play OU in Norman in 2018 with Kyler Murray as the quarterback of that Sooner team. And that Army team may not be as good as Navy is this year. And to make you even a little more nervous, that 2018 Army team isn't as good as the 2024 Army team, which was ranked No. 24 in the country before its annual rivalry game this year with Navy.
No Sooner fan should feel comfortable about the Armed Forces Bowl matchup with Navy. The only thing we know with relative certainty is that one of the two teams is going to win.