If Saturday's Red River Rivalry game were played on paper, Oklahoma might as well not bother showing up

There is a good reason why we play the games in college football and don't just base the outcomes on statistical comparisons and other assessments provided on paper. It's because the games themselves often defy logic and statistics. They many times don't turn out the way the so-called experts say they will.

The football itself is designed to bounce in funny, unpredictable ways, and the benefit or consequence of that can easily chance the outcome of a game.

As top-ranked Texas and 18th-ranked Oklahoma get ready to meet for the 120th time on the gridiron in one of college football's classic rivalries, most experts project this year's matchup as a mere blip along the Longhorns' journey to what could be a fifth national championship season.

The 2024 season is shaping up a lot like Texas' 2005 season, the last time the Longhorns won the national title. That Longhorn team, which finished 13-0 and averaged 50 points a game behind QB Vince Young and RB Jamaal Charles, pound Oklahoma 45-12 in the Red River Rivalry game that season.

This year's edition of Texas Longhorn football is a complete team with an explosive and balanced offense and a punishing defense that ranks behind only Ohio State and Tennessee nationally.

The statistical comparisons of Oklahoma and Texas through five games this season in the major offensive and defensive categories are frankly quite frightening. You can't help but come away with the impression that this year's showdown in the Cotton Bowl could rival the 2022 game, a 49-0 bloodbath and the widest margin of defeat by an Oklahoma team in the history of this epic rivalry series.

Texas is averaging 45 points a game compared to 28.6 for Oklahoma. The Longhorns average 514 yards of offense per game ( 322 passing and 191 on the ground), and the defense is holding opponents to just 228 yards per game.

Have a look for yourself. Here are the national rankings of the two teams in a number of important startistical categories:

Oklahoma Texas

Scoring offense 69th 7th

Total offense 121st 7th

Rushing offense 100th 37th

Passing offense 118th 10th

Passing efficiency defense 91st 3rd

The one statistical area where the Sooners hold an advantage is in turnover margin (turnovers gained divided by turnovers lost). Oklahoma is plus-1.60 (3rd best in the country) to plus- 0.40 for Texas (tied for 46th nationally). Short of keeping the dynamic Texas offense off the field, winning the turnover battle may be the Sooners best path for pulling an upset on Saturday.