If there were ever betting odds subject to change, it would be the ones for this Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State matchup in Starkville.
The Sooners (3-3, 1-2) play the Bulldogs (4-2, 2-2) at 2:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, and although there are plenty of storylines in Oklahoma, the headlines have been about the status of Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor. His health will decide how confident those with hope in the Bulldogs are, while Taylor being on the field will have OU supporters sweating.
Taylor has emerged as a Heisman Trophy contender while leading the SEC in passing yards per game, passing touchdowns, and total offense per game.
He's been listed as questionable all week, and although there were reports on Friday that he will play, his status was unchanged on Friday's availability report. He will likely be a game-time decision, so we won't really know Taylor's status until after kickoff.
It's been made clear that the Bulldogs are a different team without Taylor. They had averaged 39 points per game, but when Taylor was sidelined last week, LSU shut down Mississippi State 31-0 in a blowout in freshman Parker Puckett's first career start at QB.
Taking into account that the Bulldogs could be without a Heisman Trophy contender and the obvious difference without him, OU opened as a 4.5-point favorite despite being on the road and struggling offensively. That spread, though, has shrunk throughout the week as more positive updates came out about Taylor, and might continue to alter until kickoff.
Final odds for Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State
Spread
-2.5 Oklahoma
+2.5 Mississippi State
Moneyline
-128 Oklahoma
+108 Mississippi State
Total (over/under)
+/- 47.5 points
Record against the spread
Oklahoma 2-3
Texas 3-2
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Predicting Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State
There's no way to predict this game knowing whether or not Taylor will be out there, and even if he is, we won't know what kind of player he will be after dealing with turf toe. One thing is clear, though: whether it's a hobbled Taylor or a freshman, Brent Venables will dial up the pressure to force turnovers and drive-halting sacks.
On the other side, this might be the worst defense the Sooners have faced this season since UTEP in Week 1. The Bulldogs are especially vulnerable in the secondary, with the worst passing defense in the SEC.
Right now, it feels like Taylor could decide this game, but it might actually be the quarterback on the other side. OU quarterback John Mateer was solid for three quarters last week against Kentucky before completely unraveling with back-to-back interceptions late in the fourth quarter. If the Sooners get Mateer without that fourth-quarter relapse or a devastating mistake, then he's set to have the best game of his season, whether Taylor plays or not.
From there, I wouldn't bet on Mateer outperforming Taylor, but I would put money on OU's defense shutting down a damaged Taylor better than the Bulldogs can Mateer.
This score prediction is different from 24 hours ago, before it looked more likely that Taylor will play, but the result is still the same.
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