Sitting at .500, the Oklahoma Sooners either become clear winners or losers this week depending on the result.
The Sooners (3-3, 1-2) will travel to Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2) for the first time ever to play the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are coming off a devastating loss and are desperate for a win, as OU is running out of chances to reach bowl eligibility and the Bulldogs are trying to avoid a losing streak after back-to-back losses.
The outcome of this matchup also relies just as much on the injury report as on what happens on the field. Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor has been listed as questionable all week after missing the Bulldogs' last game with turf toe, while OU will be without two offensive linemen and maybe even four.
That makes this a tough outcome to predict over 24 hours before, but here's my final score prediction and three other things I see happening on Saturday.
John Mateer throws for 250+ yards
Turnovers have obviously been a problem for quarterback John Mateer, but he's still quietly been pretty productive through all his issues with 218 passing yards per game.
Mateer reaching 250 passing yards would obviously take him surpassing his average, but he's coming off a performance against Kentucky in which he threw for a season-high 270 yards while also throwing a season-high 40 passes.
Mississippi State has an even more vulnerable secondary than Kentucky, with the worst pass defense in the SEC, giving up 264.83 yards per game. If Kamario Taylor plays, then the Sooners will also have even more reason to air it out to keep up.
Reaching 250 passing yards would also require Mateer to play the entire game, which would mean he would survive another week without getting benched, hopefully because he didn't give the ball away.
Manny Choice leads the Sooners in all receiving stats
Wide receiver Manny Choice is coming off a breakout game after leading the Sooners with 98 receiving yards against Kentucky. Isaiah Sategna, though, still had more receptions with eight for 83 yards, compared to Choice's five.
Not only should Choice have earned more snaps and even a starting role with that performance, but he might also be needed more, no matter what, with Elijah Thomas listed as questionable and Parker Livingstone as probable.
Choice's increased duties will come when the Sooners also go to the air more against one of the weakest secondaries they've faced this season.
This is a recipe for Sategna to also have a great game, but the defense will be focused on Sategna and even tight end Rocky Beers. Choice has earned the trust of Mateer and will be his favorite target on Saturday with an easy frame to find at 6-foot-4.
Sooners tally 3+ sacks
Think about all of the Sooners' issues along the offensive line. They've given up the same number of sacks this season as Mississippi State at 17.
LSU just recorded three sacks against Mississippi State with Parker Puckett at quarterback. If the Bulldogs again have a freshman back there stuck in the mud, Venables will open the floodgates for his elite pass rush.
Final score prediction: Oklahoma 27, Mississippi State 13
Yes, that's a lot of points for these Sooners. They reached 27 against Texas, but that was only with the help of a punt block for a touchdown and a pick-six. But this is the worst defense the Sooners have faced since Week 1 against UTEP, and Mississippi State is at its weakest in the secondary.
Quarterback John Mateer's turnovers are inexcusable and bad enough for him to lose his starting job, but before his atrocious fourth quarter last week, he was actually pretty solid for three quarters. Barring a few catastrophic turnovers, Mateer should have his best game of the season on Saturday after building on what he actually did well a week ago.
The Sooners have mostly died off Mateer this season, but this time, they could actually find life because of him. It might not even matter how lifeless OU's running game is. The defense will also shut down the Bulldogs because even if Taylor does play, he'll be hobbled and hasn't seen anything yet like OU has.
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