A college football team has an inexperienced quarterback, brand new offensive line and holes throughout the defense, yet, because of names and a logo, the Texas Longhorns are expected by many to be the best team in the country in 2025.
Texas was the No. 1 team in both major preseason polls and its starting quarterback Arch Manning has the greatest Heisman Trophy odds of any player in the country, according to BetMGM. However, the Longhorns, even with the easiest schedule in the SEC, are still destined for an 8-4 2025 season.
Why the Longhorns will underperform in 2025
There's no logic behind this Texas hype other than the logo on a helmet and who's wearing it.
Manning sat behind future seventh-round NFL Draft pick Quinn Ewers the last two years while making just two starts against Louisiana Monroe and SEC bottom dweller Mississippi State when Ewers was injured last season. However, coming from a lineage of Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, Manning is presumed by many to be the next great college QB and future No. 1 overall pick.
While Manning adjusts to being the leader of Texas' offense, though, he'll have to do so behind an offensive line that lost four starters from last season. And the defense might not slow things down to benefit the other side of the ball with question marks all along the defensive front and in the secondary.
Manning's third career start will be on the road against Ohio State, which is also a preseason top-5 team as the defending national champion, now also with an experienced signal caller. The Buckeyes and their young phenom, though, will have the benefit of playing at a favoring Ohio Stadium, plus he'll be protected by five returning starting offensive linemen and be throwing the ball to Jeremiah Smith, the best receiver in the country.
The Longhorns' first of four losses will come in that Week 1 meeting against Ohio State, immediately slashing expectations. Then, after three cakewalk nonconference games at home, Texas will travel to The Swamp to play Florida, a team still underrated in the top 15. That outcome will make the Longhorns 0-2 in road games to that point and 3-2 overall.
With no bye week between, the Longhorns will then get the Oklahoma Sooners for the Red River Rivalry on Oct. 11 in Dallas. This rivalry game was a beatdown last season in Texas' favor, but this time around, the Sooners hold the Longhorns' Kryptonite.
The Sooners could have the best defensive line in the country that will wreak havoc against Texas' lackluster offensive line. As Manning is under constant pressure, the more experienced John Mateer on the other sideline will solidify himself as a Heisman frontrunner after outdoing Manning head-to-head.
Halfway through the season, the Longhorns will be at .500, already with three losses after failing against every ranked opponent so far.
Texas' favorable SEC slate will influence a three-game winning streak and rise in the rankings, but a trip to Georgia, which beat the Longhorns twice last season, will be Texas' fourth loss of the season.
By the end, if the Longhorns can avoid slipping up again along the way, they will be 8-4 with their only likely ranked win against Texas A&M in the regular-season finale in Austin.
An 8-4 season for the Longhorns does not have to include any illogical upset or drastic injury. And if that does happen, then Steve Sarkisian's seat will be even hotter than Brent Venables with Texas at 7-5 or worse.
Schedule Predictions
at Ohio State: L
vs San Jose State: W
vs UTEP: W
vs Sam Houston State: W
at Florida: L
vs Oklahoma: L
at Kentucky: W
at Mississippi State: W
vs Vanderbilt: W
at Georgia: L
vs Arkansas: W
vs Texas A&M: W
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