The ultimate fate of Oklahoma football Team 131 is one of the biggest unknowns as we inch closer to the 2025 college football season.
What we do know at this point in time -- or at least anticipate from all the media hype -- is that with a new quarterback in John Mateer and offensive coordinator in Ben Arbuckle, the Sooners' offense should be markedly better in the coming season, and head coach Brent Venables' defense should be as good if not better in 2025. We also know, though, that the gauntlet of games Oklahoma has to navigate is one of the most challenging in the country.
So, theoretically, Oklahoma could be better in 2025, but still win only as many as six games, depending on whether its opponents have taken a step forward or backward from last season. The idea being if you're not getting better, you're getting worse.
The staff at CBS Sports took a glass-half-full outlook this week in assessing Oklahoma's chances for success this season. An article by Carter Bahns cited seven teams, including both the Sooners and Auburn out of the SEC, that conceivably could be anything from a .500 team to potentially earning a berth in the College Football Playoff.
Sooners' 2025 expectation scale ranges from break even to playoff wild card
Besides OU and Auburn, the five other teams singled out as wild card playoff contenders were Utah and Kansas from the Big 12, USC and Indiana out of the Big Ten, and SMU from the ACC.
"The last time Oklahoma avoided the injury bug, it won 10 games and climbed as high as No. 5 in the CFP rankings," Bahns wrote. "In many ways, the Sooners' SEC debut can be tossed aside as an outlier. Any team stretched that thin at wide receiver and offensive line would be bound to perish in such a loaded conference. Positive regression is in store. Brent Venables needs it to manifest in the form of at least a few extra wins in order to silence the critics. The defense should remain stout under Venables' guidance, so if John Mateer clicks at quarterback and new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle is a hit, Oklahoma should bounce back quite nicely. All the way to playoff contention? We'll see."
Most of the preseason handicappers have Oklahoma projected at around 6.5 wins in the coming season. ESPN's Football Power Index set the Sooners' win total at 6.9. That's pretty much where it was a year ago, especially as the season progressed. With all the adjustments and additions Oklahoma has made in the offseason, however, the Sooners would be in a much better position for a higher finish than where they were a year ago, mired deep in the bottom half of SEC standings.
Projected conference finishes for Oklahoma in the 2025 season from the numerous media sources that like to play in that arena, even before a single game has been played, have the Sooners finishing as high as fourth to as low as 11th. That's a really wide range, but it would represent an improvement over last season. It also reflects the uncertainty that surrounds the Sooner football program before seeing all the moving parts in action.
Quite a few experts are saying that the Michigan game in Norman on the second weekend of the season will be the initial bellwether of what fans can expect from OU football in 2025. That game is hugely important because it is against a college football blue blood that finished last season by beating Ohio State and Alabama, and is just two seasons removed from winning the national championship.
A win in that game against a very good Michigan team will establish a mindset and confidence level among both the players and the fan base that this Oklahoma team is all it is cracked up to be and is truly worthy of all the advance hype and preseason expectations. A win of that magnitude provides a momentum boost that the Sooners can carry into the difficult SEC schedule.
If Oklahoma can take advantage of the home games it has against the Wolverines and the SEC opener with Auburn two weeks after that, the Sooners have an excellent chance of being 5-0 when they go to Dallas on Oct. 12 for the annual Red River Rivalry with Texas.
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