After a second losing season out of the past three and an offensive decline for the ages in 2024, it's hard to imagine Oklahoma football returning to College Football Playoff contention as soon as the 2025 season. At least one college football expert, however, believes that indeed is a possibility.
Matt Hayes of USA Today projected the Sooners as one of three SEC teams to make the College Football Playoff next season. He bases that optimistic view on Washington State dual-threat transfer John Mateer, considered the No. 1 QB in the transfer portal at the time he committed to the Sooners.
One of the main reasons the Sooners were able to lure Mateer to Norman was newly acquired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, who was Mateer's OC at Washington State this past season. Miami (FL) was also highly interested in Mateer, as well as North Carolina and new coach Bill Belichick.
Hayes said, "Mateer is the difference between an ugly first season in the SEC and a CFP run in 2025."
The Wazzu transfer threw for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns last season and ran with the ball for another 826 yards and 15 touchdowns.
"The Sooners couldn't get first downs in 2024," Hayes wrote, "they'll score in bunches with Mateer and transfer wideout Isaiah Stegner (Arkansas) and high-volume Championship Series transfer receivers Keontez Lewis and Javonnie Gibson."
That's all well and good, but Oklahoma will again face a brutal SEC schedule that includes home games with Mississippi, Missouri and LSU next season, and road trips to Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina, and the annual rivalry showdown in Dallas against Texas.
All seven teams were ranked in the final AP Top 25 this past season. OU will have to do much better than its 2-6 conference record in 2024, though, if Hayes' bold projection is to become reality.
The Sooners will also face Michigan in the nonconference portion of the 2025 schedule.
Oklahoma played in four of the first six College Football Playoffs, including three consecutively between the 2017 and 2019 seasons. And in the 16 years that the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) format was in existence to determine the college football national champion, the Sooners were one of just two teams to appear four times in the national championship game (Florida State was the other).
In the 18 years of Oklahoma football in the Bob Stoops coaching era (1999-2016) and continued in the five seasons under Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma was fueled by one of the most prolific offenses in the country. And in the three successive seasons the Sooners were one of the four teams to make a playoff appearance, Oklahoma boasted one of the top three offenses in all of college football.
That is why last season's offensive collapse was so shocking in the context of a team that has built its historical success and long-standing national recognition as an offensive powerhouse.
OU's offensive performance in the 2024 season was the worst it has been in 27 years. The Sooners finished 97th among 134 teams in the FBS in scoring, 113th in total offense and 119th in passing offense this past season.
Former five-star prospect Jackson Arnold threw for 1,421 yards. The last time an Oklahoma starting quarterback had that few passing yards was Jake Sills in John Blake's final season in 1998.
Most all of the optimism about Oklahoma's rebound in 2025 is centered around the addition of new OC Arbuckle and QB Mateer.
While the competition level of the SEC represents a huge step up for both Arbuckle and Mateer, their performance numbers working together are very impressive.
Under Arbuckle, Washington State last season finished in the top 25 in points per game (36.6), yards per game (442.8) and yards per play (6.4).
And Mateer isn't the only quarterback Arbuckle has helped exceed expectations. Ahead of Mateer's elevation to Washington State's starter, Arbuckle helped Cam Ward throw for 3,735 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2023 before Ward transferred to Miami and became a Heisman contender in 2024.
There is little question that the offense needs to be better -- much better -- in the coming season.
OU coach Brent Venables and the Sooners are betting heavily that an experienced, dual-threat quarterback working in a system with which he is well familiar, creative play calling and surrounded with a complement of offensive weapons could be the right ingredients for a bounce-back season in 2025.