It will definitely take everyone being close to perfect for the Oklahoma Sooners to take down No. 1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday, but there is no denying that there are a few players who play a larger role than their teammates, whether or not OU does the unthinkable.
With no Michael Fasusi for the fourth straight game, Ryan Fodje will get the start again at left tackle for his toughest challenge yet. He will spend most of the day lined up across from edge rusher Colin Simmons, who is second in the country with 7.5 sacks this season, including 5.5 in his most recent outing against Tennessee.
Simmons could ruin the Sooners' entire day if Fodje is not up to the challenge. If quarterback John Mateer is under constant pressure, then that will no doubt result in some mistakes, and turnovers, like has been the case all season, will erase the small chance OU already has in this one.
If Fodje has one of the best games of his career and goes toe-to-toe with a future first-round draft pick, then the next two guys on this list actually have a chance to make something happen. But if not, OU's offense will look as dysfunctional as ever.
It is a massive "if" at this point, but if OU does not turn the ball over on Saturday, I predict the Sooners will win this game. That "if" will be in quarterback John Mateer's hands every play.
The Sooners have turned the ball over 10 times this season, which has resulted in them having the worst turnover margin among all Power 4 teams. Of those 10 turnovers, Mateer has been responsible for six of them. And it is not just that Mateer turns the ball over; they almost always come at the worst time and put points on the board for the other team.
To further show how important it is that Mateer is flawless, in 16 games as OU's QB1 over the past two seasons, only five times has he not turned the ball over at all. The Sooners are a perfect 5-0 in those games.
When John Mateer is turnover-free, Oklahoma wins by an average of 15 points (5-game sample).
— The Main Line (@TheMainLinePod) October 6, 2026
With only one turnover, Oklahoma wins by an average of 11 points (7-game sample).
With 2+ turnovers, Oklahoma loses by an average of 8 points (4-game sample). pic.twitter.com/0MEOB3PCNP
Mateer does not need to play like a Heisman Trophy contender again for the Sooners to do something special. He just needs to get out of the defense's way.
The Sooners have not reached the end zone at the Cotton Bowl in two years. Isaiah Sategna seems to be OU’s best chance at that dreadful streak not reaching three years.
Texas has a stellar defense, but it still has weak spots in the secondary. That unit will struggle to keep Sategna’s speed from doing some damage. With the way Sategna turns nothing into everything from underneath, Mateer also doesn’t need much time to get the ball to Sategna, even if that pass rush is breathing down his neck.
I predicted a defensive touchdown by the Sooners, or the very least, getting a turnover to set up an easy score for the offense. If Sategna also breaks away to pay dirt, Sooner Nation can start thinking upset.
With how solid OU’s defense is and how dormant Texas’ offense has been, 14 points could be enough for either team to win this game.
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