Things looked a lot brighter for Oklahoma football Team 129’s championship aspirations a couple of weeks ago.
When you’re undefeated more than halfway through the season, including a big win over your biggest rival and a reasonably favorable schedule the rest of the way, the road to glory looks like a superhighway.
All is wonderful, until it isn’t. And that can happen on any given Saturday in college football. In Oklahoma’s case, how about successive weekends? Stopovers at Kansas and Oklahoma State on consecutive weekends in late October and the first of November left the Sooners College Football Playoff hopes dead on arrival and their Big 12 title hopes mortally wounded.
In a matter of eight days, Oklahoma found itself tumbling from the top of the roost in the conference standings down a couple of notches, settling into a tie for third place with four other teams.
Explaining the various Sooners paths to Big 12 Championship, tiebreaker scenarios.
— 𝕺𝖐𝖑𝖆𝖍𝖔𝖒𝖆 𝖛𝖘. 𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝖂𝖔𝖗𝖑𝖉 (@soonergridiron) November 14, 2023
"There’s a lot of football to be played. We’ve got to do a great job of not self-inflicting some of the issues that we had." — Brent Venables#OUDNA | #BoomerSooner https://t.co/Iue4UrihZq
The Sooners rebounded from their dispiriting two-game skid with an emphatic 59-20 win over West Virginia on Saturday, keeping their fainting hopes alive of making it into the Big 12 title game.
Ironically, OU is currently chasing its two biggest rivals — Texas and Oklahoma State — for a spot in the conference championship game and a shot at what would be a league-leading 15th Big 12 crown. A championship matchup with either of those two teams would be a memorable showdown in this the final season of Big 12 membership for Oklahoma.
So what has to happen for Oklahoma to make it into the Big 12 Championship on Dec. 2 in Arlington, Texas? First and foremost, the Sooners cannot lose either of their final two regular-season games against BYU and TCU to make it to the Big 12 title game.
Although there are scenarios by which any two of five potential title contenders could make it into the championship game, especially if there is a three-way tie for second place or, worse, a four-way tie for first, the real battle is between Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State.
If the season were to end today, Texas and Oklahoma State would play for the Big 12 Championship. Texas would get in because of just one loss, and the Cowboys would earn a spot because of wins over both OU and Kansas State. If either Texas or Oklahoma State were to slip up and lose one of their final two games, however, that’s when tiebreaker chaos ensues
Assuming OU wins its remaining two games, the easiest path for an Oklahoma championship game appearance would be for Iowa State to defeat Texas this weekend. An Oklahoma State loss to either Houston this weekend or BYU the following weekend would also favor the Sooners despite what Texas does in its final two games.
If Texas and Oklahoma State both win out, those two teams will play for the Big 12 championship. But here’s where it gets convoluted:
- If OU, OSU and Kansas State all win out (K-State has games left at Kansas and against Iowa State) and Texas were to lose to Iowa State on Saturday, Oklahoma and Kansas State would play for the Big 12 Championship. In this scenario, Iowa State would be the highest ranked common opponent between OU, OSU and K-State, and both the Sooners and Wildcats would have wins over the Cyclones while OSU lost to Iowa State.
- Say, however, that Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all win out and Texas would beat Iowa State but lose in the regular-season finale to Texas Tech. Given this outcome, the championship matchup would be between Texas and K-State. Why? The common opponents among OU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State would be Kansas, Iowa State and UCF. K-State would have beaten all three, while OU lost to Kansas and OSU lost to both Iowa State and UCF.
The best outcome for Oklahoma, assuming again that the Sooners don’t lose another game, is for either Texas or Oklahoma State to lose one of the final two games and for Kansas State to lose to Kansas in the Sunflower Showdown this weekend at KU. If any or all of those things were to happen, the Big 12 Championship would come down to a rematch of Oklahoma vs. Texas
That would be the ultimate nightmare scenario for Big 12 officials with both OU and Texas departing for the SEC after this season. Should this occur, it is more likely that SEC commissioner Greg Stanky would be in attendance than Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark. At least that was the case when those same two teams met earlier this season in the annual Red River Showdown rivalry in the Cotton Bowl.
Buckle up. The next two weeks could get really interesting.