Stormin in Norman
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Oklahoma football: ESPN computers like 2023 Sooners even more than human polls

By Chip Rouse

NORMAN, OK - NOVEMBER 5: Head coach Brent Venables of the Oklahoma Sooners and quarterback Nick Evers #7, defensive back Kani Walker #26, wide receiver LV Bunkley-Shelton #6, and quarterback Davis Beville #11 take the field for a game against the Baylor Bears at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Norman, Oklahoma. Baylor won 38-35. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
NORMAN, OK - NOVEMBER 5: Head coach Brent Venables of the Oklahoma Sooners and quarterback Nick Evers #7, defensive back Kani Walker #26, wide receiver LV Bunkley-Shelton #6, and quarterback Davis Beville #11 take the field for a game against the Baylor Bears at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Norman, Oklahoma. Baylor won 38-35. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images) /
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When the Oklahoma football team catapulted into the No. 5 spot in college football’s top 10 after the 34-30 win over archrival Texas, it was the highest the Sooners had been ranked in the Associated Press poll this late in the season since being No. 4 in 2021.

The last time Oklahoma held the No. 1 ranking in the AP poll was early in the 2011 season.

It’s unlikely that the Sooners will reach that summit this season, but after a 6-0 start, Oklahoma is well on its way to an 11- or 12-win season. The Sooners lead all of Division I (FBS) college football with 27 seasons of 11 or more wins.

With a bye last week, Oklahoma surrendered its No. 5 ranking in the AP poll to Washington, a 36-33 winner over No. 8 Oregon over the weekend. The Sooners fell back one spot to No. 6. Washington and Oklahoma are both 6-0 and both have a win over a top-10 opponent. They also have a common nonconference opponent this season. Washington defeated Tulsa 43-10 in Seattle, while the Sooners defeated the Golden Hurricane by a score of 63-17 on the road at Tulsa.

OU may have dropped back a notch this week in the retrospective view of the AP voters, but the Sooners suffered no setback in the prospective analytics churned out by the ESPN computer in the form of the College Football Power Index (FPI). The Sooners are ranked No. 2 in the FPI behind top-ranked Ohio State.

The main difference between the weekly human polls and the ESPN FPI is that the AP and Coaches Poll rank teams on the basis of performance to date, while the FPI is a predictor of a team’s strength and how it will perform for the remainder of the season.

The Sooners have held down the No. 2 spot in the FPI rankings for several weeks now. The ESPN Matchup Predictor for Oklahoma’s remaining six regular-season game gives the Sooners no lower than an 88 percent chance of running the table for the remainder of the season. According to the Matchup Predictor, OU’s lowest win probability is 88.5 percent in the regular-season finale against TCU on Friday of Thanksgiving week (Nov. 24). Second lowest is on the road against Kansas on Oct. 28 (89.7 percent).

The ESPN FPI gives the Sooners a 63.9 percent chance of winning the Big 12 and a 69.2 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff. Here’s what should be of most interest to Sooner fans, though. The ESPN computers give Oklahoma a 39.5 percent chance of making it into the national championship game. That’s the highest of any team.

Buckle up, the next six football weekends are going to be very interesting and likely a bit stressful.

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