Stormin in Norman
Fansided

Oklahoma football: ESPN Matchup Predictor has lush outlook for Sooners looking ahead

By Chip Rouse

Aug 31, 2018; Madison, WI, USA; ESPN College Football logo on a tv camera prior to the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 31, 2018; Madison, WI, USA; ESPN College Football logo on a tv camera prior to the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

How many times have we said it? Four games does not a season make. Four games into the Oklahoma football season, however, the Sooners are gaining notice, and in a very positive way.

There is still the lingering thought, though, about what went horribly awry after a similar strong start a year ago. As all OU fans painfully recall, the Sooners looked solid to open Brent Venables‘ debut season as OU head coach, rolling off three straight wins and ranked No. 6 in the country.

In Week 4, the Sooners lost at home to Kansas State, but by just a touchdown, 41-34. That dropped OU down to No. 19 in the Associated Press Top 25. The next week, Dillon Gabriel was injured in the opening half, and Oklahoma lost 55-24 at TCU. After that, the Sooners fell out of the top 25, and then the complete bottom dropped out in an historic 49-0 beatdown against Texas.

Things so far this season don’t appear to be going down the same path, with a dominant defensive win at Cincinnati last week and with Iowa State coming to Norman this weekend. Unless something totally unexpected happens on Saturday night against the Cyclones, the Sooners should be 5-0 when they travel to Dallas for the annual Red River Rivalry game with a very good Texas team on Oct. 7.

Over the next two weeks, OU will face probably the best two defensive teams it will see all season. Iowa State leads the Big 12 and is 19th in college football in total defense and Texas is closely behind in a tie for 24th. After the game with archrival Texas, which will mark the midpoint of the season, we will have a real good read on what Sooner Team 129 is all about and how good it really is.

Every week, the ESPN Analytics department publishes a Matchup Predictor for teams in the Power 5 conferences. The Matchup Predictor is updated every week for teams like Oklahoma and not only predicts the winners of the game that particular week but also the remaining games on the Sooner schedule.

As an example, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor projects the Sooners’ win probability against Iowa State at 94.3 percent. Going forward, it gets really interesting if you’re an Oklahoma fan. OU has a 53.9 percent probability of winning against Texas, according to the ESPN computer. And that’s actually down from a previous high of 60.7 percent.

Could we possibly be witnessing a reprise of the 2000 perfect season, coincidentally in Bob Stoops’ second season as head coach? Time will certainly tell, but wouldn’t that be the story of the year in college football?

According to the Matchup Predictor, as of Week 5, Oklahoma is at least an 80 percent favorite in all of its final six regular-season games after the Red River Rivalry.

This could all change as the rest of the season progresses, but it certainly paints a rosy picture, and in sharp contrast to last season, for Sooner fans.

Home/OU Football