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Oklahoma football: Vegas win totals have Sooners, Horns leading Big 12 in 2023

By Chip Rouse

Oct 22, 2022; Lubbock, Texas, USA; A general view of the Big 12 Logo on the field before the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 22, 2022; Lubbock, Texas, USA; A general view of the Big 12 Logo on the field before the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Big 12 football will soon kick off its biggest shakeup year in 27 seasons of operation with the addition of four new teams and with the Texas and Oklahoma football programs on their way out after the 2023 season.

Since the 2011 season, when original Big 12 members Nebraska and Colorado left to join the Big Ten and Pac-12, respectively, the Big 12 has operated two short of its original 12-school structure. That number jumps to 14 in 2023 with Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF joining as new members.

As a result, the Big 12 has abandoned in balanced conference schedule in which, for the past dozen years, every team played every other team in a complete round-robin format. With 14 teams and only nine conference games, a balanced schedule is no longer possible.

Oklahoma’s 2023 schedule includes dates with three of the four new teams (at Cincinnati, at BYU and at home against UCF), but the Sooners do not play Kansas State, Baylor and Texas Tech, all teams that have given OU trouble in past seasons. Whether that is good or bad for Oklahoma is yet to be determined, but CBS Sports recently published what Caesar’s SportsBook projects as the win totals of the Big 12 teams in the coming season.

Although the Longhorns probably have the advantage in overall talent, Texas and Oklahoma are both projected at 9.5 wins. Caesar’s has the Longhorns losing just twice, however, while the Sooners are projected to lose three times, all within the conference: to Texas, at Oklahoma State and at home to TCU. Texas’ projected stumbling blocks, surprisingly, are at Houston and at TCU.

I agree that Oklahoma could lose three times next season, but I don’t think it will be more than that and I don’t believe the Sooners will lose at home against TCU or in Bedlam to Oklahoma State in Stillwater. My guess is the best chances for an OU loss next season are the Red River game with Texas, at Kansas and at BYU.

Oklahoma arguably has the one of the easiest 2023 schedules to close out its time as a founding member of the Big 12. The Sooners do not play Kansas State, Baylor or Texas Tech, all teams that beat OU last season. Despite this, because of OU’s longtime record of success, both within the conference and nationally, the Sooners always expect to get everyone’s best shot, regardless of where they fall in the rankings or standings.

Based on these win totals and game predictions, Oklahoma and Texas would meet in the Big 12 championship game — which, quite honestly, would be the Big 12’s worst nightmare.

According to Las Vegas, the closest teams to the Sooners and Longhorns are Kansas State (projected 8.0 wins), TCU and Texas Tech (both 7.5), and UCF (7.0).

Here are are all the projected Big 12 win totals, per Caesar’s Sportsbook:

Texas 9.5

Oklahoma 9.5

Kansas State 8.0

TCU 7.5

Texas Tech 7.5

UCF 7.0

Baylor 6.5

Iowa State 6.0

Oklahoma State 6.0

Kansas (6.0

BYU 5.5

West Virginia 5.5

Cincinnati 5.5

Houston 5.0

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