Oklahoma football: Five reasons OU will win the Big 12 championship in their final year

Dillon Gabriel’s Second Season

Anytime you can return a previous season’s starting quarterback, you have a leg up on the competition. But when you return the Big 12 conference’s leading quarterback from an efficiency standpoint, your chances of success are exponentially expanded.

Jeff Lebby’s offense averaged 35 points per game, ranking them 13th overall in the nation… and that’s without Dillon for a game and a half. Dillon ranked 20th nationally in QBR (quarterback rating). Dillon threw for 3,168 yards ranking him 27th nationally. Finally, he threw for 25 touchdowns, landing him, ironically, in the 25th position nationally. He ranks 1st among Big 12 returning quarterbacks for all these stats.

I expect his production to rise as Dillon enters his second year in the Lebby offense. The reason is in the history. In 2019, while at UCF, Gabriel completed 236 passes. In 2020, that number rose to 248. His 2019 completion percentage was 59%, and 2020s grew to 60%. In 2019 he threw 29 touchdowns; in 2020, it rose to 32. Finally, and probably most importantly, in 2019, Dillon threw 7 interceptions. In 2020 that number fell to 4.

Gabriel is a cerebral quarterback who gets better the longer he’s in a system. He’s had an entire cycle and a half under Coach Lebby now, and he’s better than last year. From a statistical standpoint, the Sooners’ offense was good enough to win games last year. The complementary portion of their game is where they needed to improve. If Gabriel can slightly improve on last year’s numbers or even replicate them, the Sooners’ offense will be in a great position to beat most teams in the Big 12.

Three other factors are trending Gabriel in a positive direction. First, he has two high-production, skilled, versatile running backs at his disposal now. Gavin Sawchuk and Jovantae Barnes will take a lot of pressure and use out of Dillon’s hands. Last year, the Sooners’ offense had Eric Gray. They have two quality backs now that will allow Dillon to spread the ball out even more and take carries off his plate early in possessions. The second reason is a tight end named Austin Stogner. Stogner is a seasoned veteran tight end who will quickly come in handy for Dillon Gabriel. Stogner is a crafty tight end who will bail Dillon out of late situations and serve as a big redbone target for the signal-caller. Finally, pressure makes diamonds. The kid who backs Dillon up is 5-star good. There will be pressure on Dillon to perform, which is a good thing for a highly competitive spirit like Dillon.

I look for Dillon to thrive off pressure, utilize Stogner, and feel the relief his back provides as he makes his way toward an All-Big 12 first-team selection this Fall.

There’s one more reason I expect Gabriel’s numbers to climb next season… and he’s on the next slide.