Oklahoma football: College Football News projects Sooners’ 2023-24 bowl destination
By Chip Rouse
One down season does not undo a long and glorious history of achievement at the highest level of the game. That’s why college football blue bloods like the Oklahoma football program generally receive the benefit of the doubt when it comes to turning the page to a new season.
As the months inch closer to another college football season and the annual rite of spring games offer up an early preview of what you might expect from your favorite team, the gap between perception and reality starts to come into a little sharper focus. And it will continue to do so right up until the opening kickoff of the new season.
That’s also why at this point in the calendar year, when there isn’t that much to report or write about college football, the void gets filled with subjective narrative and commentary, speculating on how the forthcoming new season — still over four months away — will play out at the national level and within the conferences.
The “way-too-early” voices have had their say about the 2023 college season, and we’re starting to see the spring refreshed versions of the same. In another month or two, as the picture comes into even clearer focus, we will get even further reconciliations in the form of preseason previews and projections.
ESPN recently released its initial installment of the College Football Power Index for the 2023 season, ranking Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Texas as the top five teams heading into the new season.
Oklahoma is 11th in the ESPN FPI ranking with a projected win-loss record of 9.7-2.8 and a two percent chance of winning out. According to the FPI, Texas is the team to beat in the expanded Big 12 this season. The Longhorns have a 54-percent chance of winning the Big 12 in 2023 and a 34 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.
The ESPN computer model projects Oklahoma with a 24 percent chance of winning the Big 12 and a 10 percent change of reaching the playoff, for what would be the Sooners’ fifth appearance in the 10-year history of the CFP format, which is being expanded this season to 12 teams.
College Football News, which last week made a game-by-game projection of how the 2023 season will play out for each Big 12 team, including Oklahoma, this week is projecting where each bowl-eligible team is likely to land.
For those who may not have seen the CFN 2023 season breakdown for the Big 12, the publication predicted that the Sooners would lose to Texas, BYU and Oklahoma State and finish with a 9-3 record and in a tie with OSU for second place in the Big 12. Because of OU’s loss to Oklahoma State, the Cowboys would play Texas for the Big 12 Championship and, according to the CFN prediction, Texas would win and be crowned the conference champion.
As Big 12 champion, the Longhorns would receive the Big 12’s top bowl assignment. CFN appears bullish on the Big 12 this season, projecting that 11 of the 14 teams will be invited to the postseason, including the Sooners, who would be making their 56th postseason bowl appearance.
CFN has Oklahoma going to the Valero Alamo Bowl in San Antonio and being matched up against Utah (No. 15 in the ESPN FPI rankings). The Alamo Bowl is either second or third in the Big 12 bowl rotation depending on whether a Big 12 team makes it into the playoff. The Sooners’ only other appearance in the Alamo Bowl was in 2021, a 47-32 win over Oregon.
For the complete breakdown on where College Football News predicts Big 12 teams will be headed in the 2023 postseason click here.
A nine-win 2023 season would be a three-win improvement and a positive turnaround over the previous season, but it would still fall below Oklahoma standards. Since 2000, the Sooners have achieved fewer than 10 overall wins just five times, and just three times have failed to win at least six games in the Big 12.
You’ve got to be able to walk before you run, though, and Oklahoma football fans would certainly welcome a three-game year-over-year improvement as a step in the right direction.